Logical Dumbness
Bob Somerby has made a rare mistake in logic and since it is so rare, I feel compelled to point it out. He says:
For the record, we still haven’t seen a single scribe note the obvious problem with the Palmeiro story—the fact that you’d never take a heavy-duty roid in a year when you knew you’d be tested. What’s the missing piece of the puzzle? Sports scribes seem determined not to ask. But then, the human ability to look past the obvious has driven a wide range of public discussions in the years since we started THE HOWLER. Despite iconic claims about “man, the rational animal,” dumbness is part of our human inheritance.
For some reason Bob does not ascribe the same observation here to Palmiero. It's true that dumbness is part of our human inheritance, which is why is just as possible that Raffy stupidly took steroids in a year he was going to be tested as it is that the press has not thought to wonder if Raffy could really be that stupid.
It has to be pointed out that drug tests are given all the time to people who know they are going to be tested --- and they test positive. I can't explain why they think they can get away with it, but they do.
Certainly Palmiero would have been dumb to take steroids right now, but he's a major league player under a huge amount of pressure to perform. Maybe he got some bad information and thought this particular drug wouldn't register. Maybe he was told by his team that they'd overlook it. It's also possible that he was set up or the test was wrong. But really, it's fairly common for people to fail scheduled drug tests, and for the most obvious reason of all --- because they took drugs.
I don't know if he did it or not. But I don't think that the logic that it would be a dumb thing to do is a very convincing reason to flay the press for not being more skeptical of the charges. People do dumb things all the time. Especially the press --- and sometimes even star athletes.
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