The Iraq Effect
by tristero
Read this, please: Our study yields one resounding finding: The rate of terrorist attacks around the world by jihadist groups and the rate of fatalities in those attacks increased dramatically after the invasion of Iraq. Globally there was a 607 percent rise in the average yearly incidence of attacks (28.3 attacks per year before and 199.8 after) and a 237 percent rise in the average fatality rate (from 501 to 1,689 deaths per year). A large part of this rise occurred in Iraq, which accounts for fully half of the global total of jihadist terrorist attacks in the post-Iraq War period. But even excluding Iraq, the average yearly number of jihadist terrorist attacks and resulting fatalities still rose sharply around the world by 265 percent and 58 percent respectively.
And even when attacks in both Afghanistan and Iraq (the two countries that together account for 80 percent of attacks and 67 percent of deaths since the invasion of Iraq) are excluded, there has still been a significant rise in jihadist terrorism elsewhere--a 35 percent increase in the number of jihadist terrorist attacks outside of Afghanistan and Iraq, from 27.6 to 37 a year, with a 12 percent rise in fatalities from 496 to 554 per year.
Of course, just because jihadist terrorism has risen in the period after the invasion of Iraq, it does not follow that events in Iraq itself caused the change. For example, a rise in attacks in the Kashmir conflict and the Chechen separatist war against Russian forces may have nothing to do with the war in Iraq. But the most direct test of The Iraq Effect--whether the United States and its allies have suffered more jihadist terrorism after the invasion than before--shows that the rate of jihadist attacks on Western interests and citizens around the world (outside of Afghanistan and Iraq) has risen by a quarter, from 7.2 to 9 a year, while the yearly fatality rate in these attacks has increased by 4 percent from 191 to 198.
This is utterly astounding. Not the fact that Bush/Iraq has increased terrorism worldwide. Everyone knows that's so, even the liars that say otherwise. Nor is the fact that terrorism has increased so dramatically that shocking. Of course invading, conquering, and occupying an Islamic state would substantially increase jihadism. Add the numerous reports of torture and wholesale murder by American personnel (as well as people from other countries ) and it is a wonder the increase over pre-invasion isn't much higher.
No. What's astounding is that this study is, apparently, the first public attempt to quantify by how much terrorism has increased since Bush opened the gates of Hell. One would think, after all, that this would be a crucial fact for American citizens to know, seeing how our children are being killed and we're paying through the nose. (And you can bet your bippy that had terrorism decreased we would certainly be hearing about it every day from the rightwing.)
What's also astounding is that this study appeared not in the Times, not in the Post, not in Foreign Affairs, not in The Economist, but in... Mother Jones. Good for Mother Jones, of course, but WTF??? That's a little like opening up Popular Science and finding out that they've published the first paper by Einstein on relativity because no one else would dare to. Indeed, these are no crackpots but rather Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank:Research fellows at the Center on Law and Security at the NYU School of Law. Bergen is also a senior fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington, D.C.
These are reputable people at reputable places, not hysterics or hacks. These are experts. So again, and with all due respect: Mother Jones???
Now, I don't want to leap to conclusions, but I'm beginning to think there's something seriously wrong with the media in this country.
ht, Sid Blumenthal by way of Jane Hamsher