Most civil wars eventually end, so the Beltway Consensus intends to ride the Iraqi one out. Assuming it concludes, whoever's in charge can declare victory, as if the whole point of invading Iraq was to eventually "end" the civil war that would break out as a result of the invasion...Which is to say, if we end up with a basing agreement after an eventual armistice, the real purpose of the war will have been served.

while it's true that all civil wars end eventually, "eventually" can be a very long time. If we're lucky, this one will end when the ethnic cleansing is finished and every region in the country and every neighborhood in Baghdad is fully segregated. That might only take a couple more years. If we're unlucky, the war will continue until the Sunni minority is obliterated and one of the Shiite factions has gotten a firm upper hand. That might take more like five or ten years.

The latter is more likely, but in any case the final resolution hardly depends on the U.S. presence. The Iraqis are going to do whatever the Iraqis are going to do. As Jim says, the only thing we get out of staying — aside from the certainty of increased instability and at least a decent chance of a wider regional war — is the possibility of owning two or three gigantic bases once the fighting stops.

"Liberals are always talking about why we shouldn't go to war for oil, but why not go to war for oil? We need oil."