The 2008 Election Just Turned
by dday
Three major developments globally have the potential to really change the dynamic in the Presidential election. Fidel Castro's resignation, the declaration of independence in Kosovo, and the resounding defeat of General-Dictator Pervez Musharraf's party in elections in Pakistan, are major, world-changing events that could be extremely positive for the world and the people in those nations, or profoundly destabilizing, over the next several years. Will Castro's exit usher in political and economic reforms? Will the counter-productive embargo finally be lifted? Or will US policy toward Cuba remain in its 50-year stasis, and will more sinister possibilities reveal themselves? Will Kosovo receive their independence and spark other democratic movements in the region, or will Serbia and Russia start another war in the Balkans? Will the opposition movements force Musharraf from power in Pakistan, or will the military render the will of the people moot, and will the society remain under martial law or worse? These are important political questions, and the next President will have an opportunity to really alter the global landscape, with smarts and savvy and the use of soft-power diplomacy.
Whether you see now as a time to stick with someone with the experience to make these tough and delicate decisions, or to go with someone with a different mindset on foreign policy, this is certainly a momentous occasion. And certainly, contrasting the two candidates we have left on the Democratic side to Bush's third term proxy John McCain, the difference is stark. Here's an example of what can be done right now, in this case with respect to Pakistan.
Now that Musharraf is for all practical purposes about to be dispensed with, the Bush administration needs to take a new approach.
A good start would be to adopt Sen. Joseph Biden's proposal to triple U.S. economic aid to Pakistan to $1.5 billion per year. A second step should be to acknowledge that flooding military aid into the country -- to the tune of $10 billion since the beginning of the Bush presidency -- has done more harm than good. In this administration -- if possible -- and certainly in the next, the United States needs to shift from "democracy promotion" to "democracy support." Instead of trying to impose pro-U.S. regimes by force, U.S. policy should involve supporting indigenous democratic forces with non-military assistance, taking its cues from the needs of these movements rather than trying to manipulate the results.
These really are the fundamental questions. Are we going to stick with a foreign policy of the neoconservative consensus, with bullying and unilateralism and warmongering, are we going to attempt to better our position in the world through cooperation and mutual support.
When you shrug off the posturing and the day to day of the campaign, these are the stakes.
UPDATE: The initial statements of the leading candidates on Castro's resignation does not make me particularly hopeful, though there are some vague claims about reaching out and talking on the condition that Cuba takes legitimate steps to reform, particularly by releasing political prisoners. Sadly, our Cuba policy is still tied to electoral politics, particularly with respect to Florida.
...also, per billjpa, two truly awful rulings by the Supreme Court, one a Kafka-esque claim that victims of warrantless wiretapping have no standing to file suit becaus e the government won't allow them to see the evidence, and another siding with insurance companies over victims of the flood caused by Hurricane Katrina, also throw this election into pretty sharp relief.
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