Hullabaloo

Wednesday, April 02, 2008

 
Just Another Outpost

by digby

Responding to Obama's frequent mocking of McCain's suggestion that U.S. troops might remain in Iraq for 100 years, the Republican nominee-in-waiting said the Illinois senator failed to understand that America has kept forces in Korea, Japan, Germany and Kuwait long after wars in each country ended.

I get that this is ridiculous. There is a civil war in Iraq, for one thing, people are dying every day. But don't underestimate the power of this line of reasoning. People know that we have had troops overseas for decades and they don't think it's weird or unusual. If McCain can succeed in convincing the public that Iraq is really becoming like Korea or Kuwait, this argument could work.

The problem is the press, which has insisted on talking about "the surge" as if it's a massive success and helping drive down the urgency of war as an issue.

This is how McCain makes that pivot:

Americans continue to be divided on whether to keep troops in Iraq or bring them home. A slim plurality of Americans (49%) now supports bringing the troops home as soon as possible, while 47% favor maintaining troops in Iraq until the situation there is stabilized. A year ago, a narrow majority (52%) favored a troop withdrawal as soon as possible, compared with 43% who favored keeping the troops in Iraq. Public support for a troop pullout peaked at 56% in June 2007. The percentage favoring withdrawing the troops as soon as possible is at its lowest level since mid-January 2007 (48%).

Obviously, events on the ground in the last week may have brought some people up short. But this trend is real --- people do not consider Iraq to be the number one issue anymore and the gap between those who want out right away and those who want to stay until it's stabilized (like Korea!) is growing. And this is partly why that's so: Awareness of Iraq War Fatalities Plummets. (I can't imagine how that has happened.)

The economy has replaced Iraq as the number one issue:

A CNN/Opinion Research Poll released Monday found that 42 percent of Americans say that the economy is the most important issue facing the next president — nearly double the 22 percent who believed that in October. While most Americans say that the troop surge advocated by McCain has improved things in Iraq, the war is now the top priority of just 21 percent of voters, down from 28 percent in October when it was the campaign's No. 1 issue.

But then there's this:

- More than 7 out of 10 Americans think government spending on the war in Iraq is partly responsible for the economic troubles in the United States, according to results of a recent poll.

In the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted last weekend, 71 percent said they think U.S. spending in Iraq is a reason for the nation's poor economy. Twenty-eight percent said they didn't think so.

I have heard people say that this is a bogus argument and shouldn't be used. I'm not so sure. It may be true that the war is not responsible for the bad economy, but it is certainly an incredible waste of blood and money for no return and it's not irrational for people to think their money should be better spent, particularly when the economy is turbulent. I don't think it's wrong for Democrats to make that argument.

People are sick of this war and truly want it to be over. If McCain can convince them that it already is --- that it's on its way to being just another imperial outpost like Germany in the 1950s, where Elvis sang GI Blues, then he might succeed, particularly if the press continues to abdicate its duty to report what's really happening. I hope the Dems don't take this for granted.



Of course, one good way to push back on this is with the Responsible Plan.
digby 4/02/2008 06:13:00 AM |