Hullabaloo

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

 
Bums Rush

by digby


Marc Ambinder notes some of the recent public hand wringing over McCain's lousy campaign and adds some big picture perspective about why this is less about McCain and more about a general shift away from the Republicans:

(1) McCain is indelibly linked with the Bush Administration on Iraq, and he is indelibly linked with the Bush economy. On the [former], the campaign points out that McCain long ago criticized the way the war was run; that is an academic point (arguably, a true point) in a world of perceptions. (On the economy, McCain had the chance to forcefully separate himself from President Bush, and he chose not to. He is responsible for this part of the problem, to the extent that it's a problem.)

(2) Since 2005, independents have been voting Democratic, have been identifying as Democrats, and have grown incredibly resistant to the Republican brand. That's not John McCain's fault. There is little he can do.

(3) The Democratic party's 50-state nomination process has turned out to be a boon for the party in so many ways; millions of Democrats and independents have already practiced voting for the Democratic candidate; hundreds of state and local parties have benefited financially and existentially from the competitive presidential race; activists are spirited and enthusiastic.

(4) Republican voter registration efforts are tapped out; in 2003 and 2004, the Bush campaign's enormously successful voter registration drive essentially registered a large portion of the remaining soft Republicans in the country. The Democratic voter registration efforts are just beginning; the Obama campaign managed to register 200,000 Democrats in Pennsylvania alone; it intends to register a half a million African Americans in Georgia; millions of young Democrats in the South and West; even if the McCain campaign wanted to expand the pool, the zoning laws of the political universe are controlled by the other party.

(5) There has been, and there will always be, tension and mistrust between McCain's world and the Republican establishment.

(6) Rick Davis and company have had two months to turn a shoestring campaign existing only in the person of John McCain and a few aides to a fully-staffed general election machine that is supposed to rival the one constructed by the supremely wealthy, supremely disciplined, supremely volunteer rich Bush campaign in 2004.

(7) Fundraising has been the governing imperative of McCain's schedule for most of the spring. His campaign had to raise about $50m until the convention, and in order for them to raise that money, McCain had to travel to where fundraisers live; the political schedule has been fixed around the fundraising schedule, and not vice-versa.

As I have written ad nauseam, this election is bigger than the candidates. The Republicans are tapped out from all their raping and pillaging. They sent out the old grizzled warrior and told him to do what he can --- and they'll help to the extent they're able --- but it's a very, very long shot and they know it. They don't particularly want to win at this point. (Why would they want to deal with this awful mess?)

Meanwhile, the Democrats have run a political show like no other, exciting, suspenseful and dramatic, featuring new and old political stars that make theirs look like the cast of Knots Landing circa 1982. All the energy is on the left right now.

McCain is running against a very strong wind from the other direction. The old boy will put up a good fight, but he can't do it alone and the Republican machine has run out of gas. They'll try, and they'll inflict some damage, just out of habit.

In the end, the Republicans will blame McCain, of course. They already are. After all, he isn't a "true conservative" which according to their dogma is what all Americans really want. But he's, by far, the best they could hope for at this moment --- a guy who is despised by all the right people and who has a (false) reputation for independence from a despised president. But it won't be enough. This election is a throw the bums out election. And as much as he pretends to be something else, he's the new leader of the bums.


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digby 5/28/2008 04:30:00 PM |