Hullabaloo

Sunday, May 25, 2008

 
They Aren't Coming Back

by digby

I was going to link positively to Ezra's post today about the Reagan Democrats and Atrios beat me to it. I agree with the notion that trying to "recapture" the Reagan Democrats is a losing proposition and I have, coincidentally, been saying it for years. People who drifted to Reagan in 1980 were driven by nationalism and animus toward social change. While they may have been sympathetic to equal rights in the abstract, things started to get dicey when their own lives were impacted by busing and housing integration and women's rights. They made themselves heard by voting with the guy who ran as the one who would "make the country proud again," which they interpreted to mean he would make the country like it used to be.

After the smoke had cleared a few of them drifted back when a less charismatic Republican took office and a few more when the Democrats offered up Bill Clinton in 1992. But those who've stayed until now have stayed because they found they felt extremely comfortable in modern Republican tribal culture and they aren't likely to leave short of a cataclysmic 1932-style realignment

Up until quite recently, it was understood that a new Democratic majority was going to be built upon the base of African Americans, unions and liberals, then capturing the hugely important growing Latino bloc while getting out the liberal youth vote (particularly young, single women.) Of course the Democratic party (the party of unions, fergawdsake) cares about the working class voter and need to get some slice of that demographic to win, but the focus would be on working class women who have been far more willing to swing Democratic than the majority of (white, non-union) working class men have been in recent years --- and have proven so in this primary campaign.

The modern winning coalition for Democrats isn't put together by getting the Reagan Democrats back. They're long gone. But every damned election we have to obsess over getting the votes of a bunch of true blue Republican men like they're the holy grail. They're welcome to come over, of course, but after 30 years of pandering there's no reason to believe they're ever going to do it. Fuggedaboudit.



*It occurs to me after reading this over that I will need to make the standard disclaimer that this is not meant as any kind of endorsement of the candidates. As I have written endlessly, I think the fundamentals of this election are about massive GOP failure and a willingness among the electorate to embrace change. I don't think the Republicans particularly want to win and I don't think the Democrats have done anything to make themselves lose. I believe the party will be together in the fall and that there are going to be plenty of people who will cross over to vote for them this time for a variety of reasons. But that has nothing to do with building a new, lasting governing coalition which is what the endless "Reagan Democrat" dialog is all about.


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digby 5/25/2008 01:00:00 PM |