For the last twenty-four hours or so, analysts and experts have been poking holes in the new study, commissioned by and for the insurance industry, purporting to show that health care reform would raise insurance premiums. But now one of the experts everybody (myself included) has quoted has put together a quick memo showing that, at least for people trying to buy coverage through the new exchanges, premiums would actually come down. Way down.

The expert is MIT economist Jonathan Gruber. He hasn't formally modeled the impacts of the reforms on premiums; for this analysis, he has relied simply on available data from the Congressional Budget Office. But the gist of what he says makes sense intuitively. (As you can imagine, I'm not exactly qualified to pass judgment on the figures.)

And while Gruber has advised both the administration and its allies on reform--the White House is circulating this paper--he's also worked with Republicans and has credibility on both sides of the aisle. His work, in other words, a wee bit more reliable than what the insurance industry put out over the weekend.