Escalation And the Crazies

by digby

Andrea Mitchell questioned Dan Balz about his series in the Post about their recent polls of the Republican Party.( They're very confused. In fact the only thing they are clear about is that they are very angry and unhappy with everything.)

This exchange struck me:

Mitchell: First of all 61% of all Americans and 85% of Republicans say that they are unhappy with the way things are going. But it also show that by twice as many, the drop off from the last year, the sort of toxic quality of the opposition. If you look at how Republicans and independent leaning Republicans have really dropped off in a big way from support for the president. It's gone from 48 to 84 in the past year.

Balz: The opposition to this president coalesced very quickly in a very solid way. I think it certainly surprised the White House how quickly the opposition coalesced against him. And particularly among conservative Republicans almost anything this president did and does have been against
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The chart accompanying her comments shows that the question is actually "how satisfied are you with the way the country's political system is working?" and that 61% of all respondents say they are unsatisfied compared to 64% back in 2007. Not much of a change. But only 48% of Republicans were dissatisfied at that time compared to 84% now. Golly, what do you suppose has changed?

Conservative Republicans simply do not believe that Democrats are legitimate. it's not a matter of disagreeing with policies or compromise or anything else. They simply do not think that the Democratic party led by liberals (and they are all liberals in in their minds) can be allowed to govern the country. It doesn't "belong" to them, they have no claim on it. And I think that it was almost criminally naive for anyone with any political memory to have thought otherwise.

I always hoped that the Obama people understood that the campaign rhetoric of reconciliation that was necessary to elect a Democrat as the first black president was not going instantly transform the nature of the opposition. I got why they would need to sell the candidacy as a transformative moment that signaled the final healing of centuries old wounds and ushered in a new era of bipartisan comity. They had to portray the candidate as someone with an almost supernatural ability to transcend the old divisions and bring people together because of the historic nature of his candidacy.

It would have made a lot of people nervous if they'd realized the electing any Democrat, and particularly the first African American, would galvanize the moribund right wing into its current froth. In fact, more than a few people might have voted for McCain just to avoid it. (I suspect that there were many who were reluctant to vote for Clinton because they already knew what kind of reaction she brought out among the far right --- and the media.) It was smart to avoid that.

But I find it very difficult to understand why the professional political people would have actually believed such a thing. The history of the right wing in this country is clear and while the crazy waxes and wanes, it is always present and it always acts in total opposition to liberalism. At a time when the Republican Party has been reduced to its most conservative essence, both in a regional and an ideological sense, complete with Godlike demagogues with their own powerful echo chamber, it was not difficult to see that they were going to be an impenetrable wall of opposition. I honestly could never believe anyone thought otherwise.

But we are coming to an unusual moment, of which I can't totally predict the outcome. Balz put it this way:

Now it will be interesting in the context of this decision, to give General McChrystal basically what he had asked for in numbers if not in terms of a timetable, whether the Republicans who have been critical of the president for dithering for not being willing to back up his commanders will in fact support him on this decision and whether that has any impact. My guess is that over the long term that will not affect people's political views, Republicans' views of the president in the election next year.


He is correct that it will not affect Republicans' views of Obama. They will continue to loathe and despise him even if they support his war policy, which everyone is assuming they will do.

I honestly don't know if that's true. They would certainly be hypocrites if they didn't. He's doing exactly what the sainted Generals want him to do and it's a fundamental requirement of freedom loving conservatives everywhere that the nation put itself wholly into the hands of the military and never question its judgment about anything.

But can they force themselves to join Obama en masse on anything? Perhaps. Most people believe they will. But I think it's a hard road for many of them to take regardless of the policy and I suspect that many of them are looking for a way to oppose it. The only thing I've seen so far is the George Will approach, which is almost frighteningly rational, and the Tony Blankley/Fred Thompson approach which basically says we should get out because Obama is too much of a wimp to fight the war properly no matter what. (I would suspect that at least some Republicans might glom on to that one.)

If the Republicans can find a reason to oppose Obama on Afghanisatan they could theoretically form a coalition with liberals who are opposed to the war for principled reasons and defeat any further requests for funding. I have no doubt that they would love to see Obama defeated on something at this point, but whether or not they'd be able to stomach doing it on national security is unknown (and probably unlikely.) But it's something to keep an eye on.

Now the president can do this unilaterally so the congress doesn't technically have anything to say about it. But David Obey is trying to force a vote with his tax proposal. And according to some sources the White House is going to go back on its promise to not use the supplemental process to fund this escalation with a request in early Spring. (Murtha said they can't pay for this escalation without one.)So congress will likely be weighing in in some fashion.

So Obama should worry about Republican support because if he still thinks he is dealing with a rational opposition on any level he's deluding himself. They could very well be willing to blow themselves up in order to ruin him. And frankly, I don't know that they would be blowing themselves up. Republican voters hate him so much they couldn't care less as long as he loses --- and they'll buy any excuse if it's coming from the right people. It's not that hard to see them at least split on it. (Indeed, the cracks are already beginning to show.)

And that would mean Obama would have to get nearly every Democrat to vote to escalate the war, a task which Emmanuel is putting his whole heart into doing in any case. But it may not be that easy.

I am sympathetic to many of the difficult decisions Obama has to make. This one, I have little doubt about. Escalating the war is a mistake. There is no "winning" and establishing another imperial outpost in the area is provocative and dangerous. This is not like health care where you have to weigh whether it's better to take half a loaf than nothing at all --- it's a crystal clear issue of liberal principle.


Update: Dana Bash on CNN says it's hard to find Democrats who are supportive of the escalation. She called in "remarkable."
We'll see.


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