Supermarket Scanner Strategy
by digby
Ok, this is scary:
Plouffe, who ran Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign, previewed the arguments the president and his team will sound 16 months before an election that could be a referendum on Obama’s handling of the economy. While history has shown the unemployment rate to be a leading indicator of an incumbent’s success, Plouffe said Americans won’t base their votes on it.
“The average American does not view the economy through the prism of GDP or unemployment rates or even monthly jobs numbers,” Plouffe said. “People won’t vote based on the unemployment rate, they’re going to vote based on: ‘How do I feel about my own situation? Do I believe the president makes decisions based on me and my family?’”
Since World War II, no U.S. president has won re-election with a jobless rate above 6 percent, with the exception of Ronald Reagan, who faced 7.2 percent unemployment on Election Day in 1984. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg puts the unemployment rate at 8.2 percent in the third quarter of next year.
“Their decision next year will be based upon two things,” Plouffe said. “How do I feel about things right now and then, ultimately, campaigns are always much more about the future and who do I think has got the best idea, the best vision for where to take the country?”
He needs to get out more. The feeling of angst and fear across the land is directly tied to the fact that unemployemnt is high. People know it and except for the political class, heriesses, CEOs and Wall Street traders, even if they are currently employed they are personally experiencing it in their inability to get a raise, change jobs, move up, sell their houses,start a business or get a loan. People are stuck,unable to make a change, seeing the future they had planned just fade away as they adjust to a flat economy with no dynamism and no end in sight. Happy talk isn't going to do it.
I can understand Plouffe wanting to downplay this issue in this forum because it's not going to work in their favor. But someone else might have done it by saying that the president is very aware of the people's angst and believe that they understand he's doing everything he can to fix it --- that Republicans are hostile to job creation policies and stymie any attempt to pass them. Pretending that it doesn't matter at all is very telling.
I think that's just bizarrely out of touch. George-Bush-Sr-with-the-supermarket-scanner out of touch.
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