Talkin' Turkey
by digby
I think it's time to admit that the president has, in fact, used the bully pulpit quite effectively. The latest Gallup report shows that his leadership has brought the public along quite well on his favored policies --- compromise and deficit reduction:
Two-thirds of Americans would like government officials to agree to a compromise plan on the debt and budget deficit negotiations now underway. Fewer than 3 in 10 want lawmakers who share their views on the debt and budget deficit to hold out for their desired plan. A majority of Republicans, independents, and Democrats favor reaching a compromise...
Americans continue to express a strong desire that any agreement that is reached include plans for major cuts in future spending. Americans now by a 20-point margin -- 55% vs. 35% -- say they worry more that the government would raise the debt ceiling without plans for major spending cuts, than that the government would not raise the ceiling and an economic crisis would ensue.
Americans appear to be saying to their elected representatives: Get an agreement done, even if it is not an ideal plan, but make sure it includes major spending cuts.
The ongoing negotiations in Washington suggest that leaders on both sides of the aisle are attempting to heed public opinion. The sticking points are matters of degree -- how major the spending cuts will be, and whether the spending cuts are accompanied by some type of concomitant tax increase.
Remember that until the past few months, the raising of the debt ceiling was a pro forma vote, usually featuring a couple of cranks or comers making a speech and taking a protest vote. Nobody was ever "worried" that it would be passed without big spending cuts until the Republicans decided to use it as leverage --- and the President signed on to this formulation. The national consensus on the necessity for huge spending cuts couldn't have happened without him.
On the other hand, Greg Sargent is reporting that the Republicans are working feverishly to get their members on board with the McConnell plan:
The Senate Republican aide I spoke to says those who support the McConnell scheme as a plan of last resort are holding out for what might be called a “what now” moment. Here’s how this may play out: The House passes “cut cap and balance” today, it fails in the Senate over the weekend; and by Monday everyone finally realizes that there’s no way the White House and Congressional leaders will ever reach a deal exchanging spending cuts for revenue hikes. At that point, the aide predicts, everyone may throw up their arms and say, “what now?” It’s only then that House Republicans — who got their chance to vote Yes on spending caps and a balanced budget amendment — will realize that they have no choice but to pass the McConnell proposal.
Greg cites the fact that most Americans want a compromise on this, which I also think will have salience. But the fact that they are so adamant about spending cuts sounds as if they also want the Democrats to compromise on their requirement for tax increases if it comes down to the wire, no? If it falls apart without the big spending cuts, the Democrats will be blamed. What a hideous pickle.
McConnell is still on the table, but it looks as though a Big Deal is still the preferred outcome for the leadership of both parties, for obvious reasons -- the Boehner and cantor know they have a once in a generation chance to get Democrats to take the lead on destroying the safety net (and the Ryan Medicare attack) while the Democrats are afraid of being blamed for refusing to cut spending. (Oy vey.) But who knows at this point? They are all taking public positions that may or may not be real as part of their negotiation/kabuki.
For instance Steny Hoyer just came out against entitlement cuts, which is great. Except I don't believe it for an instant. Hoyer has long been on record as being for entitlement "reform." Here's Steny a couple of years ago:
House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (MD) delivered the keynote address at a Bipartisan Policy Center forum, “Unprecedented Federal Debt: Putting Our Fiscal House in Order,” hosted by former Senator Pete Domenici at the St. Regis Hotel. Below are his remarks as prepared for delivery:
“If I were to guess the single most lasting lesson of our economic crisis, and if I were to spell it out in just five words, I would say: this is what debt does.
“The recklessness we have seen from so many consumers, and from Wall Street, found an echo in the recklessness of the federal government. For years, our government has lived far beyond its means—and we see now that when we over-rely on debt, things can turn very ugly, very quickly. If a fiscal meltdown comes, there will be no one to bail out America.
[...]
“Our third response is, by far, the most important. That is the structural response—the actions we must take to confront the imbalance between our commitments and our revenues that are driving us deeper into debt every year. We will not bring our debt down if we do not reform entitlements and rein in the rapidly rising cost of health care.
“I am glad that we have a President who sees it that way. His talk of a ‘grand bargain’ that encompasses issues from entitlements to health care to taxes shows a clear understanding of the tradeoffs and sacrifices that will be necessary. Given the gravity of our situation, we cannot afford to take any options off of the table, either on the spending or the revenue side.
Yeah, he's really going to the mat for "entitlements." I suspect he's positioning himself to be able to "compromise".
Update: And now the Gang of Six emerges from their coffins, which the press is portraying as very good news. It's not:
Leaders of a bipartisan "Gang of Six" senators said Tuesday that they're nearing agreement on a major plan to cut the deficit by more than $4 trillion over the coming decade in what could be a bold entry into a debate on the deficit long bogged-down by bitter partisanship.
The Gang of Six plan is separate from a politically freighted effort to lift the nation's borrowing cap and avoid a first-ever default on U.S. obligations. President Barack Obama and Capitol Hill Republicans, however, have failed to reach an accord on what kind of spending cuts to pair with any increase in the borrowing cap as the government teeters toward a possible default in two weeks.
[...]
The Gang of Six plan calls for an immediate $500 billion "down payment" on cutting the deficit as the starting point toward cuts of more than $4 trillion over the coming decade that would be finalized in a second piece of legislation.
The idea is that a bipartisan plan would gain critical mass in the Senate, powered by the endorsement of conservatives like Coburn and liberals like Dick Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Democrat in the Senate and a member of the group.
Both Republican and Democratic leaders, however, remain wary of the effort, since it would raise revenues by about $1 trillion over 10 years and cut popular benefit programs like Medicare and Medicaid.
Yes, it's the Simpson Bowles Obama formula.
But it also includes this "tax reform" proposal:
Like the deficit commission, the Senate group's plan calls for a fundamental overhaul of the tax code that would slash special tax preferences and deductions as a way to lower tax rates — along the lines of the 1986 tax reform measure signed into law by President Ronald Reagan. In addition to skimming some of the revenue to reduce the deficit, advocates of the plan say it would spur the economy and fill federal coffers further because of such growth.
They are actually going to try to sell the fatuous magical thinking that deficit reduction plus tax cuts equals more revenue. (Then they'll let us create a whole new shiny safety net, right?)
Here's the President just now:
"We have a Democratic President and administration that is prepared to sign a tough package that includes both spending cuts, modifications to Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare that would strengthen those systems and allow them to move forward and would include a revenue component. We now have a bipartisan group of Senators who agree with that balanced approach. And we have the American people who agree with that balanced approach."
He went on to say that he had sent orders out to Boehner and Pelosi and Reid and McConnell to "talk turkey" and get this done. And he acknowledged that the McConnell plan exists as a fall back. I'm still rooting for it more than ever.
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