Trouble in Bachmann Land
by David Atkins ("thereisnospoon")
Not good news for Michele Bachmann:
Ed Rollins, the veteran campaign operative who helped engineer an Iowa straw poll victory for Representative Michele Bachmann this summer, has stepped down from running the day-to-day operations of her presidential campaign, a spokeswoman for Mrs. Bachmann said Monday night...
Politico reported the change in Mr. Rollins’s role. The Web site also reported on Monday night that Mr. Rollins’s deputy, David Polyansky, would leave the campaign. “I wish Michele nothing but the best, and anyone who underestimates her as a candidate does so at their own peril,” Mr. Polyansky told Politico.
The change in roles for Mr. Rollins came on a day he was quoted in The Washington Post as expressing pessimism about Mrs. Bachmann’s campaign. “The Perry-Romney race is now the story, with us the third candidate,” Mr. Rollins said.
The moves raise questions about the future of Mrs. Bachmann’s campaign. After winning the straw poll in August, Mrs. Bachmann, of Minnesota, has struggled to maintain momentum, especially after Gov. Rick Perry of Texas entered the Republican contest.
Of course, let's not forget that many prognosticators like myself were foolishly writing off John McCain's chances in 2007. This horse race will bounce around and around for a while. Perry is big news today, but if Palin jumps in, Perry will be as yesterday's news as Bachmann.
Personally, I expect Romney to be the nominee in spite of it all. The GOP made a fool of me and my predictions in 2004 1996 when I assumed that Bob Dole was too boring for GOP primary voters, and again in 2008 when I wrote off John McCain for his stance on immigration. The GOP has always gone with the candidate who was "next in line," which would mean Romney this time.
Most of the rest of the field will turn their sights on Perry as the biggest threat, and the wingnut vote furious with and distrustful of Romney will split their votes.
The only thing that would cost Romney the nomination, in my mind, would be if GOP voters really are more prejudiced against a Mormon candidate than they let on, in a sort of religious Bradley effect.
Time will tell.