So, we're still playing chicken on the payroll tax cut and Unemployment Insurance extension and both parties are heading over the cliff at Christmas. Great. Unfortunately, history shows this tends to set the stage for a Democratic capitulation.
Right now, Boehner is saying that the Senators have to come back to town and hash this out since his caucus rebelled and refuses to sign on. There is every reason to believe that could happen. What we don't know is if Boehner will retain a strong hand once they return. The Senate bill passed with a huge bipartisan majority, and Mitch McConnell was obviously assured it would pass the House, so the internecine politics are going to be interesting.
The X-factor here is the White House. What will they do if they sense that the payroll cut, and UI and the doc fix are all about to expire? In the last days of the debt limit fight, the Obama administration faced a similar dilemma. Reid had a plan in the Senate, Boehner had a plan in the House. But just as now, House Republicans rebelled, and left Boehner hanging — seemingly destroying his ability to negotiate. Suddenly Reid had the only viable legislation in the Congress and with the hours ticking down, it looked like Republicans would have to cave and pass it. That’s when the White House stepped in and cut a deal with Republicans, effectively bailing Boehner out. That’s the deal that ultimately passed. If the White House spooks out about the prospect of all these provisions lapsing, administration officials could step in once again.
If that happens I think everyone needs to take a step back and re-evaluate whether all this "rebellion" isn't part of the kabuki dance. It certainly does seem to work for the Republicans every time it happens.
If you have a little extra, we'd be grateful for a donation to our Hullabaloo holiday fundraiser:
