Reading the Tea Leaves
by David Atkins
The latest poll out of Florida:
Newt Gingrich leads Mitt Romney by eight points in Florida, according to a poll conducted the day after the former House speaker won the South Carolina primary.
According to the Insider Advantage poll, Gingrich has 34 percent support, Romney has 26 percent, Texas Rep. Ron Paul has 13 percent, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum garners 11 percent.
But there's just one problem: Newt has a +34 unfavorable rating with the American public. The latest PPP poll shows that 60% of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Gingrich, compared to only 26% who like him. Ouch. Mitt Romney's, meanwhile, is only +18 unfavorable.
The President has only a +10 job disapproval, making him more popular than either leading Republican in spite of everything. If the economy continues to improve over the next year (no sure thing, of course), that number will only get better.
In a national matchup, President Obama beats Gingrich by 7 points, but only beats Romney by 5.
What does all of this mean? Watch for the long knives from the GOP establishment to come out against Mr. Gingrich over the next week. They know that Mitt Romney for all his 1% vulture capital warts, is the only one with a prayer of taking the White House in 2012.
And then watch in response as the Tea Party base spits fury at the Republican Party.
It's helpful in these situations to remember that Democrats aren't the only Party with a serious "base" problem. If anything, the Republicans have it worse right now.
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