Hullabaloo

Thursday, May 24, 2012

 
Dissonance and hypocrisy: why so many Americans lie about what they believe

by digby

Amanda Marcotte takes a closer look at the new Gallup poll which shows that theterm "pro-choice" is losing ground as a self-identifier. (The data shows that people's views about abortion have changed little.) This is a very astute observation and one which I wish more poli-sci types would look into when they use polling to demonstrate this or that about the state of mind of the polity:

Polling Americans on vague beliefs and self-identity doesn't really tell us much in general beyond highlighting how delusional and/or hypocritical our nation is. The reality is that there's a huge gulf between what people claim to believe—even when speaking anonymously to a pollster—and what they actually believe, which is easier to measure when looking at behavior or what kind of policy choices they support. Gallup didn't just measure views on abortion this week, but also took a more general look at Americans' beliefs about various morally contentious issues, including sexual choices. While some of the answers are in alignment with people's actual behavior—nearly nine out of 10 Americans support the use of contraception, for instance—in some cases the gulf between what people actually believe and what they tell pollsters is comical. For instance, 38 percent of Americans say that sex between unmarried heterosexuals is wrong, but Guttmacher data demonstrates that 95 percent of Americans actually do the deed at some point. Even in the unlikely event that there's complete overlap between the "thou shall nots" and the "didn't dos," that still means one in three Americans is so invested in an image of themselves as an uptight prig that they will misrepresent themselves to a pollster who they know isn't attaching their name to the answers.

It's of course possible that one-third of our nation are swimming in daily guilt about their fornicating ways, but the likelier answer is that most of these people have rationalized their own choices while passing judgment on others. (Abortion providers see this all the time with self-identified pro-life patients, who usually have a reason why their abortion is the moral one.)

Religiosity is another example:

Two in five Americans say they regularly attend religious services. Upward of 90 percent of all Americans believe in God, pollsters report, and more than 70 percent have absolutely no doubt that God exists. The patron saint of Christmas, Americans insist, is the emaciated hero on the Cross, not the obese fellow in the overstuffed costume.

There is only one conclusion to draw from these numbers: Americans are significantly more religious than the citizens of other industrialized nations.

Except they are not.
[...]
There was an obvious clue (in hindsight) that the survey numbers were hugely inflated. Even as pundits theorized about why Americans were so much more religious than Europeans, quiet voices on the ground asked how, if so many Americans were attending services, the pews of so many churches could be deserted.

"If Americans are going to church at the rate they report, the churches would be full on Sunday mornings and denominations would be growing," wrote C. Kirk Hadaway, now director of research at the Episcopal Church. (Hadaway's research has included evangelical congregations, which reported sharp growth in recent decades.)
Hadaway and his colleagues compared actual attendance counts with church members' reports about their attendance in 18 Catholic dioceses across the country and Protestants in a rural Ohio county. * They found that actual "church attendance rates for Protestants and Catholics are approximately one half" of what people reported.

A few years later, another study estimated how often Americans attended church by asking them to minutely document how they spent their time on Sundays. Without revealing that they were interested in religious practices, researchers Stanley Presser and Linda Stinson asked questions along these lines: "I would like to ask you about the things you did yesterday from midnight Saturday to midnight last night. Let's start with midnight Saturday. What were you doing? What time did you finish? Where were you? What did you do next?"

This neutral interviewing method produced far fewer professions of church attendance. Compared to the "time-use" technique, Presser and Stinson found that nearly 50 percent more people claimed they attended services when asked the type of question that pollsters ask: "Did you attend religious services in the last week?"

In a more recent study, Hadaway estimated that if the number of Americans who told Gallup pollsters that they attended church in the last week were accurate, about 118 million Americans would be at houses of worship each week. By calculating the number of congregations (including non-Christian congregations) and their average attendance, Hadaway estimated that in reality about 21 percent of Americans attended religious services weekly—exactly half the number who told pollsters they did.

Finally, in a brand new paper, Philip Brenner at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research compared self-reported attendance at religious services with "time-use" interviews in the United States, Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Norway, Finland, Slovenia, Italy, Spain, Austria, Ireland, and Great Britain. Brenner looked at nearly 500 studies over four decades, involving nearly a million respondents.

Brenner found that the United States and Canada were outliers—not in religious attendance, but in overreporting religious attendance. Americans attended services about as often as Italians and Slovenians and slightly more than Brits and Germans. The significant difference between the two North American countries and other industrialized nations was the enormous gap between poll responses and time-use studies in those two countries.

I recall reading years ago that when they compared people's self-reported driving records to their claims of church attendance, they were clearly lying. We've known this for a while, but nobody wants to deal with it.

I think Amanda is right about many, if not most, Americans being moral hypocrites. And it's not just over abortion and religion. It also applies to their feelings toward government and the common good. (I have long had my own hypothesis about why that is, but YMMV.) Until someone figures out how to use this information properly, I suspect that we'll continue to be at the mercy of data that doesn't reflect reality and smart propaganda that knows how to exploit the dissonance.


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digby 5/24/2012 11:00:00 AM