I think Hayes is right and that the President didn't prepare. Confidence is a necessary trait in a president, but I think his achilles heel is believing his own hype. And I think the hype was that he was good at debating and Romney isn't. Unfortunately for us, losing a presidential debate to Mitt Romney is probably the least significant negative consequence of this particular character trait.
I personally don't think this debate means as much as some people do. I get why the right is having a field day. If the Democrats were the underdogs, they'd be doing the same happy dance if their guy trounced the Republican in the first presidential debate. It's natural. If the polls show a substantial shift over the next couple of weeks in Romney's favor, then I suppose this will have been an important event. But, unless Obama screws the pooch in the rest of the debates I'd be surprised if it ends up being a big deal.