Hullabaloo

Saturday, March 23, 2013

 
The Emerging Democratic Majority still stands--even if Republicans win

by David Atkins

Following up on Digby's post yesterday, I absolutely agree with Drum and Perlstein that despite the tide of demographic advantages for Democrats, Republicans will still win their share of elections, including national ones. Perlstein in particular notes that the Republican party of the future won't be as homophobic or racist as it is today, rendering some of the Democratic advantage moot.

That is true, of course. But it also views politics as a sort of football match where who wins is determined by who has the ball at any given time. Winning elections matters a great deal, of course, but the reason for paying attention to politics is, well, public policy. In that sense, the optimism progressives feel about the future isn't unfounded. For the past 40 years the country has been on a nearly unbroken push toward economic conservatism, even as the culture has shifted left toward greater justice on social issues. Did that mean that Democrats would never win an election in those forty years? Of course not. Bill Clinton served in the White House for eight years. Had the Supreme Court not stolen the Presidency from Al Gore, we would have been spared the Bush Administration. But Bill Clinton was only a speed bump on the road to economic conservatism. In many ways Clinton midwifed some of the worst of it, including NAFTA and the repeal of Glass-Steagall. The Democratic Presidency did not stop the conservative economic onslaught.

But the tide is turning. Despite the idiocy of the sequester, chained CPI and the Ryan budget, the public is increasingly disenchanted with conservative economics. The public's appetite for tax cuts has receded, and its focus on income inequality and social justice has increased. Americans want higher taxes on the wealthy, they want government to play a role in improving people's lives, and they want to curb income inequality. Americans want increased minimum wage, and support the Budget for All by wide margins over centrist or Republican plans. Americans are also increasingly secular and opposed to institutionalized racism and bigotry.

So it's entirely possible that in 2020 or 2024 Republicans will retake the Presidency. They may well retake the Senate in 2014. But if Republicans have to accept and expand the Affordable Care Act, pass immigration reform, accept marriage equality, and start talking about income inequality and unemployment to get there, that itself constitutes victory as well. If Republicans have to form their own version of the DLC to adapt, survive and win, so be it. If they have to pick on some other marginalized groups to get their fear on, then we'll fight them on that ground. But at least the current marginalized groups will be saved the sting of their hatred.

No Democrat should be under the illusion that Democrats will hold the Presidency for an unbroken 30 years. But we should have cause to hope that much of the damage of the last 40 years can be fixed, regardless of who holds the White House.


thereisnospoon 3/23/2013 07:30:00 AM