Why aren't they scared of blowback?
by digby
There's a lot of talk about what the political benefits of cutting the "entitlements" are with many of the Democratic elites taking the position that the country will see them as being "the grown-ups" and reward democrats for their common sense at the ballot box. Others suspect that this is a fool's game that will blow back on Democrats at the ballot box when Republicans cynically use it against them and the people blame for failing to protect their vital interests.
I think this little passage from a few weeks ago reveals the White House political calculations. This was in reference to the Medicare changes:
Proponents, including some in the administration, acknowledge the political risks of increasing most beneficiaries’ costs, even in exchange for capping their total costs, as in cases of catastrophic illness. A 1988 law protecting against catastrophic costs caused such an outcry among older Americans, who faced an extra tax, that Congress quickly repealed it.
But administration officials say the 1988 law affected current beneficiaries, while Mr. Obama would apply any changes only to people becoming eligible for Medicare after 2016.
Uhm, so do you suppose that the administration thinks that people in 2016 won't be upset about this? It's only three and a half years away. But then again, that will be the last year of the Obama administration at which point he will go off into the sunset and burnish his legacy while the people take out their frustrations on the poor Democrats who are running for office that year. I'm hard pressed to see any other reason for that rationale.
It's also important to point out that even when seniors aren't personally affected by these cuts, they are distraught at the idea that their children and grandchildren won't be able to depend on them too:
In the wake of the Great Recession, older Americans, especially in middle-income and lower-income brackets, are relying on these programs more than ever. A July poll by AARP of voters over age 50 found that 76 percent with annual income below $50,000 will rely more heavily on Social Security and Medicare in retirement than they had previously planned.
About 65 percent of Americans over 50 oppose changing Social Security or Medicare to help reduce the federal deficit - much higher than any other age group, according to polling by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, which has surveyed Americans extensively on entitlement programs.
Older people's direct experience with both programs helps explain the strong support, according to Michael Dimock, Pew's associate director of research. But older generations also tend to think about Social Security and Medicare in terms of their children and grandchildren.
"Most older people who get involved in protecting Social Security will tell you they want to make sure it's there for their children and grandchildren," said Donna Butts, executive director of advocacy and public policy group Generations United.
"They may already be receiving it, so any changes won't impact them," she said. "But they feel strongly about the system."
I can bear this out. When I was younger I certainly supported Social Security. But as I've gotten older I've realized much more personally just how important this program is, not just for my own looming elder years but having dealt with aging parents. You often don't see how vital it is until you deal with old people -- or get old yourself. I guarantee you that the vast majority of seniors are not just care about getting their check. It's way bigger than that.
Especially now:
Moreover, grandparents' concerns extend well beyond Social Security and Medicare. AARP's most recent survey of grandparents found a high level of worry about the future facing their children and grandchildren.
And grandparents who can afford it are stepping up their support for their grandchildren. The survey showed 53 percent were helping to pay for education, 23 percent for medical and dental services, and 37 percent for everyday living expenses.
"Seniors sometimes are portrayed as just being in it for themselves," says Amy Goyer, an expert on multigenerational and family issues at AARP. "But time after time, that's not what our research shows."
This is the real difference between the generations on this:
"The biggest difference between young and old on Medicare and Social Security is their impression of how well these systems work," Pew's Dimock says. "It isn't about altruism or selfishness - seniors like Medicare and Social Security because they see the reality of how they work. Many younger people haven't had those experiences."
Pew data shows that 57 percent of Americans over age 65 think Social Security does an excellent or good job serving the people it covers, and 61 percent have similar attitudes about Medicare. A majority of younger people give both programs poor marks.
Why would they know about this? They're living in a world full of the future, where the last thing they should think about is their old age. They don't know that these programs work because they're so distant from them. (And they do support them nonetheless, it's just more abstract.) But the people who are in the last third of their lives and deal with this every day know first hand how important and efficient these programs are and want to protect them for their kids and grandkids. You can't fool them about that. Indeed, the whole idea that you can buy them off by patting them on the head and saying "you needn't worry about your own check dear, we're only going to cut off your family not you" is fatuous and insulting. Elders are proud of what these programs have accomplished and they want them to survive for their children. In many cases, it's all they have to leave behind.
It didn't work in 1988 or in 2005 when George W Bush tried it and it's unlikely to work today. The best the Obama administration can hope for is that they get it in under the wire while the harshest blowback happens to the Democratic fools who have to face voters in the future.
Update: This spells trouble too
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