Is there a generation gap among Republicans, too? Or is it only skin deep?
by David Atkins
Interesting findings from Pew Research today on the state of the GOP electorate:
A recent survey of Republican and Republican-leaning adults about the GOP’s future found stark age differences in opinions on the question of whether more diverse nominees would help the party perform better in future elections. (Some of the findings in this post were not included in the original report.)
Among Republicans and leaners under 40, 68% say nominating more racial and ethnic minorities would help and 64% say the same about more women nominees. Far fewer Republicans 40 and older view these steps as helpful: 49% say nominating more racial and ethnic minorities would help and 46% say the same of nominating more women.
More generally, younger Republicans are more likely than older Republicans to say that the GOP has not been welcoming to all groups of people. Overall, most Republicans (60%) think the party “is tolerant and open to all groups of people,” while 36% say it is not. Younger Republicans are divided – 51% say the party is tolerant and open to all, while 45% disagreed. Among older Republicans, twice as many view the party as tolerant (64%) than not (32%).
This is being touted as a significant generation gap among Republicans, but I'm not convinced. The only disagreement here between younger and older Republicans is about whether female and minority candidates and figureheads would help the GOP's image. The question had nothing to do with altering Republican policies. What's startling about the findings is that nearly a majority of Republicans over 40 aren't even comfortable with giving their party with window dressing of female and minority support, much less relaxing the policies that disadvantage those groups.
And indeed, on questions of policy both younger and older Republicans think the answer to their woes is to become even more conservative:
Despite these ideological differences, younger and older Republicans generally agree that the GOP needs to address major problems – rather than just make minor changes – in order to be competitive in the future.
And there are no significant age differences over the party’s future ideological direction: 50% of Republicans under 40 and 55% of those 40 and older favor their leaders moving in a more conservative direction.
In short, the GOP base seems unlikely to change significantly as they approach the tolling bell of the 2020 census. Women and minority voters have already proven that they can see through token candidates like Sarah Palin and Alan Keyes who remain hostile to their interests. If the generational changes in the Republican firmament are only skin deep, their national fortunes will remain dim.
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