Generic Democrats lead in 37 of 61 Republican districts
by David Atkins
It's early days, of course, and leads for "generic" candidates often evaporate when real, flawed flesh and blood candidates present themselves. The smart money says Republicans still hold onto the House. But even so, these numbers from PPP are nothing short of astonishing:
A new round of post-shutdown polling shows that Democrats not only have an opportunity to take back the House of Representatives next year, but that they could win a sizable majority if voter anger over the shutdown carries into 2014. Public Policy Polling has just completed surveys in an additional 25 GOP-held House districts, which means we have now surveyed a total of 61 such districts since the beginning of the government shutdown. The surveys were commissioned and paid for by MoveOn.org Political Action. Republicans will likely find this third round of surveys to be the most alarming yet, given that the new results show substantial Republican vulnerability in many districts that were not even supposed to be close.
Incumbent Republicans trail generic Democrats in 15 of the 25 districts we most recently surveyed. This means generic Democrats lead in 37 of 61 districts polled since the beginning of the government shutdown. Democrats only need to net 17 seats in order to retake the House. And the bad news for Republicans doesn’t stop there, because in the minority of the 61 districts where Republicans lead in the initial head-to-head question, 11 more Republicans fall behind once voters are informed that the Republican supported the government shutdown and 1 race becomes tied. This means that our results indicate Democrats have pickup opportunities in an astounding 49 of the 61 districts surveyed.
Anecdotally, the Washington Post has a story about constituent reactions in one GOP-held district in Virginia:
Rich Anderson knocks on doors seven days a week, for at least two hours a day. He’s not selling anything. He’s listening.
After 30 years in the Air Force, he’s used to straight talk. But what Anderson, a Republican who represents 80,000 residents of Prince William County in the Virginia legislature, is hearing these days is blunt to the max.
Knock-knock: “I’m fed up with all of you,” says Tony Smathers, a retired research physicist at the Naval Research Lab.
Knock-knock: “It must really suck to be a Republican right now,” says a federal worker who, truth be told, is a Republican herself.
Knock-knock: “Lifelong Republican,” says the woman at the door, a senior executive in the military. “I’m sorry — I have to tell you, I’m not apt to vote for anyone in my own party this year. Can’t do it.”
These voters will help choose a new governor in two weeks, and they are gearing up to send a message about the most recent horror show in Washington.
At many doors, voters tell Anderson that they plan to hold his party and its candidate for governor, Ken Cuccinelli II, to account for the D.C. follies. Anderson winces and explains that Virginia does business differently from the jokers in Washington. Things get done, budgets get balanced, opponents work together.
At some doors, there’s a grudging nod, maybe even a thin smile. But at many, this genial state delegate is the convenient guy to vent at.
It's possible if not probable that this anger will have dissipated by this time next year. But that also assumes that Tea Party Republicans won't pull any more stunts between now and next year's elections. If they do, the ill will they've built up over the shutdown could be reinforced over other issues.
The biggest danger for Democrats at this point is being shortsighted enough to enact the Republican agenda by needlessly cutting Medicare and Social Security in order to solve phantom budget problems 20 years down the road during the greatest recession since the Great Depression. Let the Republicans own shutting down the government in order to deny people healthcare, and let the Republicans and cocktail circuit pundits own attempting to cut Social Security and Medicare so that rich people won't have to pay extra taxes. The public is angry enough as it is.
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