Gimme that old time kabuki
by digby
Brian Beutler is reporting that the GOP is getting the message that the White House isn't prepared to deal with a gun to its head:
After struggling for weeks and weeks in stages one through four, Republicans are finally entering the final stage of grieving over the death of their belief that President Obama would begin offering concessions in exchange for an increase in the debt limit.
The catalyzing event appears to have been an hour-plus long meeting between Obama and Congressional leaders at the White House on Wednesday. Senior administration officials say that if the meeting accomplished only one thing it was to convey to Republican leaders the extent of Obama’s determination not to negotiate with them over the budget until after they fund the government and increase the debt limit. These officials say his will here is stronger than at any time since he decided to press ahead with health care reform after Scott Brown ended the Democrats’ Senate supermajority in 2010.
Ezra reports a similar tale:
Top administration officials say that President Obama feels as strongly about this fight as he has about anything in his presidency. He believes that he will be handing his successor a fatally weakened office, and handing the American people an unacceptable risk of future financial crises, if he breaks, or even bends, in the face of Republican demands. And so the White House says that their position is simple, and it will not change: They will not negotiate over substantive policy issues until Republicans end the shutdown and raise the debt ceiling.
That's awesome. Except the GOP still has the hostages. They aren't just throwing their guns to the ground and stomping off in a huff. And they aren't going to do that.
Here's Greg Sargent with reports that Boehner's signaling he won't allow a default ... but he will need some concessions:
Multiple reports today inform us that John Boehner is privately telling colleagues that in the end, he won’t allow default and will even let a debt ceiling hike pass with mostly Dem votes if it comes down to it. Plenty of folks are rightly skeptical about this development. But it’s not entirely without significance.
The Post’s account points out that this may be a trial balloon designed to gauge how this will play with conservatives. Meanwhile, a spokesman for Boehner has been reiterating that Boehner does not intend to allow default, even as that spokesman is simultaneously reiterating that he will expect concessions in exchange for raising the debt limit, anyway.
I suspect that what's happening is that a deal is being made about the deal. After all:
The White House says that their position is simple, and it will not change: They will not negotiate over substantive policy issues until Republicans end the shutdown and raise the debt ceiling.
You'll notice they aren't saying they won't negotiate.
It's absolutely true that the White House must make it clear that you cannot hold the world economy hostage over wingnut bullshit every year. And I'd guess the GOP leadership is happy to have them make that point --- the Tea Party faction is too stupid to understand such an abstraction when it's explained to them. But there is no way the Republicans are prepared to just tuck their tails between their legs and run off into the woods. They can't. Sooo, what seems to be happening is that we are doing some kabuki dancing around the shutdown and the debt ceiling while a deal is being quietly made outside the process.
We don't know if the wingnut faction will go along, but it's not impossible that after this freakshow, Boehner will be able to corral enough semi-sane Republicans to get over the hump and, more importantly of course, save his job. But he'll have to give them something for their trouble. We don't know what that might be because it's all on the QT, but I'd put my money on Norquist pegging this one right:
I think the original plan for the Republicans was to move the continuing resolution past the debt ceiling and then to sit down with Obama and decide whether he would be willing to trade some relaxation of the sequester for significant reforms of entitlements. That was something Obama might well do. Democrats in the House and the Senate are very concerned about caps and limits in sequestration. Republicans could get significant long-term entitlement reform -- all on the spending side, I’m assured by leadership -- for some relaxation of sequester.
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