Maybe we should rethink Clinton's inevitability?
by David Atkins
Yes, it's a Fox News poll so take with a slight dose of salt (Fox News polls tend to skew to the right somewhat, but not hugely). But this is interesting:
Hillary Clinton’s favorability rating has hit a six-year low, according to a new Fox News poll.
At 49 percent, just under half of Americans view the former secretary of state favorably, while 45 percent see her unfavorably, the poll, released Thursday, said. This is the first time Clinton’s approval rating has fallen below 50 percent in a Fox survey since April 2008 — during the Democratic presidential primaries — when 47 percent viewed her favorably.
The poll’s results also mark a 7 percentage point drop within the past year for Clinton, about whose potential 2016 bid there is wide speculation. Fifty-six percent viewed the former first lady favorably in Fox News’s previous poll, conducted in June 2013.
Meanwhile, President Barack Obama’s approval ratings have remained consistent, as 45 percent view him favorably and 51 percent view him unfavorably. This is a 1 percentage point change from his 46/52 favorability split in 2013.
The biggest argument for Clinton's candidacy in 2016 is her popularity, combined with overwhelming name recognition. The idea is that since voters already know a great deal about her, her favorability won't decline after GOP attacks.
If this poll is accurate, it appears that argument may not be as valid as many thought.
Clinton tried to coast on inevitability in 2008, and her campaign failed miserably after a huge head start. Yes, she made some tactical errors shortly before the Iowa caucuses, but the election should never have been close in the first place. The Obama campaign was a juggernaut to be sure, but the race was Clinton's to lose. She lost it by assuming inevitability, and even more so by her refusal to acknowledge the error of voting for the war in Iraq.
Many of my friends on the Democratic side don't believe that Clinton will be vulnerable in 2016 because there's no Obama-like candidate on the horizon. That would be a mistake that understates Clinton's weaknesses and overstates Obama's strengths.
If Clinton doesn't fight harder for public support and do more to appeal to the progressive base, she can easily lose again in 2016.
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