Another lesson of Thad Cochran's victory: don't count out Democratic turnout
by David Atkins
Mississippi Republican Senator Thad Cochran survived his primary runoff last night from radical nutcase McDaniel, almost entirely due to crossover vote in the open primary from African-Americans who would normally vote Democratic. McDaniel still hasn't conceded, hoping to find enough irregularities (i.e., Democrats who had voted the Democratic partisan ballot in the earlier election) with which to challenge.
The tea party camp is crying foul, of course, accusing Cochran of betraying the conservative movement, courting Democratic votes, and using the open primary to abuse the process. They're actually right about all of that, for what it's worth. Cochran's camp for its part did everything by the rules, and is now in theory at least somewhat more accountable to the constituency that pulled him through.
But it's also worth noting that Mississippi Democrats actually did turn out to vote in large enough numbers to make a real difference, even though the big race was between two Republicans. Meanwhile, Republican pollsters in both this race and the Eric Cantor race were wildly off target.
Democrats are more excited to vote than one might expect, and Republican pollsters are still trying to calibrate their models both in terms of Democratic turnout and in terms of conservative base loyalties.
2014 is still very much up in the air, and the professional GOP establishment seems both blind, internally divided and utterly lost.
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