Today's CW
by digby
Here's "First Read" with what you need to interpret every establishment journalist's lazy talking points for the day:
From the new NBC/WSJ poll we released last night: Almost everyone is in lousy shape. Hillary Clinton's fav/unfav numbers dropped from 44%-40% (+4) in June to 37%-48% (-11) now -- which gives her a worse popularity rating than President Obama has ever had during his presidency. Jeb Bush's fav/unfav rating, at 26%-40% (-14) is even worse -- and it's worse than Mitt Romney ever had at any point in the 2012 race. And Donald Trump, who leads the GOP horserace, is at 26%-56% (-30). Ratings for other Republicans: Chris Christie (-13), Ted Cruz (-12), Rand Paul (-10), Mike Huckabee (-8), Scott Walker (-1), and Marco Rubio (+1). Even President Obama, who has enjoyed a renaissance in his poll numbers as of late, has seen his overall job-approval rating tick down three points to 45%. So the American public is down on almost every political figure and institution in our NBC/WSJ poll. The exceptions: Bernie Sanders (+5), John Kasich (+5), the NRA (+11), and Planned Parenthood (+15). We'll have more on those Planned Parenthood and NRA numbers below.
Now you know why Hillary is up with new TV ads in August
As for Clinton, our poll and the crosstabs in it make it clear why she's going up with TV ads in August: She has some work to do. Yet despite Hillary's sinking favorability rating, she continues to lead the Democratic horserace by a wide margin. She's the top choice of 59% of national Democratic primary voters, while 25% pick Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. They're followed by former Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va., and former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, who are tied at 3% each. That margin, however, is smaller than her 60-point national advantage over Sanders a month ago, 75%-15%. What's more, Clinton's fav/unfav numbers among Democratic primary voters -- 73% positive, 13% negative -- remains strong.
The timing of our NBC/WSJ poll (conducted July 26-30) can possibly explain why Clinton's numbers dropped so much in one month -- it came right after the New York Times and other outlets (including NBC News) originally reported that she was facing the possibility of a criminal inquiry over her use of email while secretary of state. That particular storyline turned out to be incorrect. But the timing doesn't explain why Jeb's standing took a hit. In one month, he went from first to third in the GOP horserace; his fav/unfav ticked down from 27%-36% (-9) to 26%-40% (-14); his fav/unfav among GOP primary voters declined, too, from 53%-15% (+38) to 50%-23% (+27); and the drop was even sharper among those very conservative - from 61%-13% (+48) in June to 46%-29% (+17) now. Folks, these aren't just tough numbers for Jeb; they're hard-to-get-the-nomination numbers.
Also too, Marco Rubio has "tons" of potential. (Don't say I didn't warn you ...)
So Clinton is unpopular with Republicans but she's still hugely popular with Democrats which is seen as a major liability in the primary. They do admit that the drop in popularity among the general public may have had something to do with the New York Times erroneously splashing a lie about her being criminally investigated across their front page and every other major outlet running with it like Alexander Butterfield had just revealed the White House taping system. Nice of them to note "that storyline turned out to be incorrect" though.
There's no need to even mention Bernie Sanders beyond a passing reference. The fact that he's hugely popular with many liberals is irrelevant because well, liberals are irrelevant. Conservatives, on the other hand are Real Americans who must be reckoned with.
And they are shocked, I tell you, shocked that Jeb!, the boring Bush, isn't running away with the field considering how much everyone in their circles yearn for a return to normal --- meaning one of them in the White House (if you know what I mean...) Why anyone thought that the Republican base was similarly yearning to repeat the humiliations of Bush senior who failed to secure a second term, thus ending the assumed thousand year reign ushered in by St Ronnie and his idiot son who left office with a 25% approval rating just 7 years ago, is a mystery.
So, there you have it. Take it away Luke Russert ...
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