Dreaming of a California Cruz/Trump cage match
by digby
California rarely matters in presidential primaries because it happens so late in the cycle but this year it might be different for Republicans. They could easily still be in the thick of it in June. And look at this from the latest Field poll (the California gold standard.)
Ted Cruz has surged to a statistical tie with Donald Trump among Republicans in California, while Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina have tumbled in this late-voting state, according to a new poll.
The Field Poll, released Tuesday, reflects Cruz’s momentum nationally in the crowded Republican presidential field. While the Texas senator lags behind Trump in New Hampshire and national polls, he has pushed ahead in Iowa, which holds its first-in-the-nation caucuses on Feb. 1.
Cruz, a favorite of evangelicals and tea party conservatives, is the first choice of 25 percent of likely Republican voters in California, according to the poll. Trump stands at 23 percent, while Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is running third at 13 percent. The difference between Cruz’s and Trump’s numbers is within the poll’s margin of error.
They also mention poor homegirl Carly Fiorina who down to 3 percent. In her own state.
While Bush, Carson and Fiorina faltered, Cruz gained nearly 20 percentage points from October. Not only did he catch Trump in first-choice rankings, but he is now twice as likely as the real estate developer and TV personality to be listed as a California Republicans’ second preference.
That measurement could factor heavily as more candidates drop out and the field narrows.
“What you see is that beyond just the horse race, where (Cruz) is in a statistical tie with Trump, he seems to be much better positioned to be the beneficiary of the declining fortunes of other candidates,” Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo said. “He seems to be the candidate who is best positioned to capture even more support from other candidates as the field winnows.”
California wingnuts are among the wingnuttiest of all wingnuts. Luckily for those of us who live here they are in a minority and likely to stay that way as long as they remain so wingnutty. If Trump and Cruz are still sparring over who hates immigrants the most by the time they get here it should be a very good year for Democrats.
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