HOME



Digby's Hullabaloo
2801 Ocean Park Blvd.
Box 157
Santa Monica, Ca 90405



Facebook: Digby Parton

Twitter:
@digby56
@Gaius_Publius
@BloggersRUs (Tom Sullivan)
@spockosbrain



emails:
Digby:
thedigbyblog at gmail
Dennis:
satniteflix at gmail
Gaius:
publius.gaius at gmail
Tom:
tpostsully at gmail
Spocko:
Spockosbrain at gmail
tristero:
Richardein at me.com








Infomania

Salon
Buzzflash
Mother Jones
Raw Story
Huffington Post
Slate
Crooks and Liars
American Prospect
New Republic
Common Dreams
AmericanPoliticsJournal
Smirking Chimp
CJR Daily
consortium news

Blog-o-rama

Eschaton
BagNewsNotes
Daily Kos
Political Animal
Driftglass
Firedoglake
Taylor Marsh
Spocko's Brain
Talk Left
Suburban Guerrilla
Scoobie Davis
Echidne
Electrolite
Americablog
Tom Tomorrow
Left Coaster
Angry Bear
oilprice.com
Seeing the Forest
Cathie From Canada
Frontier River Guides
Brad DeLong
The Sideshow
Liberal Oasis
BartCop
Juan Cole
Rising Hegemon
alicublog
Unqualified Offerings
Alas, A Blog
RogerAiles
Lean Left
Oliver Willis
skippy the bush kangaroo
uggabugga
Crooked Timber
discourse.net
Amygdala
the talking dog
David E's Fablog
The Agonist


Denofcinema.com: Saturday Night at the Movies by Dennis Hartley review archive

01/01/2003 - 02/01/2003 02/01/2003 - 03/01/2003 03/01/2003 - 04/01/2003 04/01/2003 - 05/01/2003 05/01/2003 - 06/01/2003 06/01/2003 - 07/01/2003 07/01/2003 - 08/01/2003 08/01/2003 - 09/01/2003 09/01/2003 - 10/01/2003 10/01/2003 - 11/01/2003 11/01/2003 - 12/01/2003 12/01/2003 - 01/01/2004 01/01/2004 - 02/01/2004 02/01/2004 - 03/01/2004 03/01/2004 - 04/01/2004 04/01/2004 - 05/01/2004 05/01/2004 - 06/01/2004 06/01/2004 - 07/01/2004 07/01/2004 - 08/01/2004 08/01/2004 - 09/01/2004 09/01/2004 - 10/01/2004 10/01/2004 - 11/01/2004 11/01/2004 - 12/01/2004 12/01/2004 - 01/01/2005 01/01/2005 - 02/01/2005 02/01/2005 - 03/01/2005 03/01/2005 - 04/01/2005 04/01/2005 - 05/01/2005 05/01/2005 - 06/01/2005 06/01/2005 - 07/01/2005 07/01/2005 - 08/01/2005 08/01/2005 - 09/01/2005 09/01/2005 - 10/01/2005 10/01/2005 - 11/01/2005 11/01/2005 - 12/01/2005 12/01/2005 - 01/01/2006 01/01/2006 - 02/01/2006 02/01/2006 - 03/01/2006 03/01/2006 - 04/01/2006 04/01/2006 - 05/01/2006 05/01/2006 - 06/01/2006 06/01/2006 - 07/01/2006 07/01/2006 - 08/01/2006 08/01/2006 - 09/01/2006 09/01/2006 - 10/01/2006 10/01/2006 - 11/01/2006 11/01/2006 - 12/01/2006 12/01/2006 - 01/01/2007 01/01/2007 - 02/01/2007 02/01/2007 - 03/01/2007 03/01/2007 - 04/01/2007 04/01/2007 - 05/01/2007 05/01/2007 - 06/01/2007 06/01/2007 - 07/01/2007 07/01/2007 - 08/01/2007 08/01/2007 - 09/01/2007 09/01/2007 - 10/01/2007 10/01/2007 - 11/01/2007 11/01/2007 - 12/01/2007 12/01/2007 - 01/01/2008 01/01/2008 - 02/01/2008 02/01/2008 - 03/01/2008 03/01/2008 - 04/01/2008 04/01/2008 - 05/01/2008 05/01/2008 - 06/01/2008 06/01/2008 - 07/01/2008 07/01/2008 - 08/01/2008 08/01/2008 - 09/01/2008 09/01/2008 - 10/01/2008 10/01/2008 - 11/01/2008 11/01/2008 - 12/01/2008 12/01/2008 - 01/01/2009 01/01/2009 - 02/01/2009 02/01/2009 - 03/01/2009 03/01/2009 - 04/01/2009 04/01/2009 - 05/01/2009 05/01/2009 - 06/01/2009 06/01/2009 - 07/01/2009 07/01/2009 - 08/01/2009 08/01/2009 - 09/01/2009 09/01/2009 - 10/01/2009 10/01/2009 - 11/01/2009 11/01/2009 - 12/01/2009 12/01/2009 - 01/01/2010 01/01/2010 - 02/01/2010 02/01/2010 - 03/01/2010 03/01/2010 - 04/01/2010 04/01/2010 - 05/01/2010 05/01/2010 - 06/01/2010 06/01/2010 - 07/01/2010 07/01/2010 - 08/01/2010 08/01/2010 - 09/01/2010 09/01/2010 - 10/01/2010 10/01/2010 - 11/01/2010 11/01/2010 - 12/01/2010 12/01/2010 - 01/01/2011 01/01/2011 - 02/01/2011 02/01/2011 - 03/01/2011 03/01/2011 - 04/01/2011 04/01/2011 - 05/01/2011 05/01/2011 - 06/01/2011 06/01/2011 - 07/01/2011 07/01/2011 - 08/01/2011 08/01/2011 - 09/01/2011 09/01/2011 - 10/01/2011 10/01/2011 - 11/01/2011 11/01/2011 - 12/01/2011 12/01/2011 - 01/01/2012 01/01/2012 - 02/01/2012 02/01/2012 - 03/01/2012 03/01/2012 - 04/01/2012 04/01/2012 - 05/01/2012 05/01/2012 - 06/01/2012 06/01/2012 - 07/01/2012 07/01/2012 - 08/01/2012 08/01/2012 - 09/01/2012 09/01/2012 - 10/01/2012 10/01/2012 - 11/01/2012 11/01/2012 - 12/01/2012 12/01/2012 - 01/01/2013 01/01/2013 - 02/01/2013 02/01/2013 - 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 - 04/01/2013 04/01/2013 - 05/01/2013 05/01/2013 - 06/01/2013 06/01/2013 - 07/01/2013 07/01/2013 - 08/01/2013 08/01/2013 - 09/01/2013 09/01/2013 - 10/01/2013 10/01/2013 - 11/01/2013 11/01/2013 - 12/01/2013 12/01/2013 - 01/01/2014 01/01/2014 - 02/01/2014 02/01/2014 - 03/01/2014 03/01/2014 - 04/01/2014 04/01/2014 - 05/01/2014 05/01/2014 - 06/01/2014 06/01/2014 - 07/01/2014 07/01/2014 - 08/01/2014 08/01/2014 - 09/01/2014 09/01/2014 - 10/01/2014 10/01/2014 - 11/01/2014 11/01/2014 - 12/01/2014 12/01/2014 - 01/01/2015 01/01/2015 - 02/01/2015 02/01/2015 - 03/01/2015 03/01/2015 - 04/01/2015 04/01/2015 - 05/01/2015 05/01/2015 - 06/01/2015 06/01/2015 - 07/01/2015 07/01/2015 - 08/01/2015 08/01/2015 - 09/01/2015 09/01/2015 - 10/01/2015 10/01/2015 - 11/01/2015 11/01/2015 - 12/01/2015 12/01/2015 - 01/01/2016 01/01/2016 - 02/01/2016 02/01/2016 - 03/01/2016 03/01/2016 - 04/01/2016 04/01/2016 - 05/01/2016 05/01/2016 - 06/01/2016 06/01/2016 - 07/01/2016 07/01/2016 - 08/01/2016 08/01/2016 - 09/01/2016 09/01/2016 - 10/01/2016 10/01/2016 - 11/01/2016 11/01/2016 - 12/01/2016 12/01/2016 - 01/01/2017


 

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Hullabaloo


Wednesday, January 20, 2016

 
The evangelical voter split

by digby

This Ron Brownstein analysis of the Republican electorate and Cruz and Trump's respective strengths within it is fascinating. His thesis throughout these primaries has been that this is really about a divide between high school educated working class white Republicans and college educated white Republicans. In this case he drills down even further to find that the divide exists within the evangelical world as well and that the two candidates are splitting there as well.


It's a long article worth reading all the way through but this gets to the central point:
Though Cruz led big among col­lege-edu­cated evan­gel­ic­als in the latest Quin­nipi­ac Iowa sur­vey, the poll placed Trump ahead of Cruz by 32 per­cent to 30 per­cent among evan­gel­ic­als without a col­lege de­gree. The NBC/WSJ/Mar­ist Poll in Iowa showed Cruz still lead­ing Trump among blue-col­lar evan­gel­ic­als, but with a much nar­row­er ad­vant­age (nine per­cent­age points) than among their col­lege-edu­cated coun­ter­parts (23 points).

Craig Robin­son, founder of The Iowa Re­pub­lic­an web­site and former polit­ic­al dir­ect­or for the state GOP, said Trump’s strength with these work­ing-class evan­gel­ic­als “doesn’t sur­prise me at all. He def­in­itely has this ap­peal to the hard-work­ing blue-col­lar little guy.” As for Cruz, Robin­son ad­ded, “I don’t think he’s a lock at all” for these voters.

Work­ing-class evan­gel­ic­als rep­res­ent a po­ten­tially pivotal block not only in the South, but also across key Mid­west­ern battle­grounds that also vote in early March. In 2012, non­col­lege evan­gel­ic­als cast more than one-third of the Re­pub­lic­an bal­lots in South Car­o­lina and Geor­gia, al­most ex­actly one-third in Ohio, and about one-fourth in Flor­ida, Illinois, and Michigan, the exit poll fig­ures show. They will also carry sig­ni­fic­ant weight in oth­er South­ern and heart­land states like Ten­ness­ee, Arkan­sas, Ok­lahoma, Mis­sis­sippi, Mis­souri, Wis­con­sin, and Kan­sas.

Cruz has cour­ted these voters partly by mov­ing closer to Trump’s po­s­i­tions on im­mig­ra­tion and trade. But mostly Cruz is bet­ting on his as­sidu­ous or­gan­iz­ing through re­li­gious net­works. His “Faith and Re­li­gious Liberty Co­ali­tion” has at­trac­ted en­dorse­ments from some 400 con­ser­vat­ive re­li­gious lead­ers, in­clud­ing prom­in­ent na­tion­al fig­ures such as Fo­cus on the Fam­ily founder James Dob­son and Bob Vander Plaats, pres­id­ent of the Iowa Fam­ily Lead­er. And, like San­tor­um and Mike Hucka­bee be­fore him, Cruz has worked dog­gedly to at­tract homeschool­ing fam­il­ies. In South Car­o­lina, “Cruz is work­ing the evan­gel­ic­al pas­tors and get­ting them en­gaged, and he is do­ing that pretty ef­fect­ively,” says Or­an P. Smith, pres­id­ent of the Pal­metto Fam­ily Coun­cil, a lead­ing so­cial con­ser­vat­ive group there.

Many ob­serv­ers be­lieve this or­gan­iz­ing—and Cruz’s un­waver­ingly con­ser­vat­ive re­cord on so­cial is­sues such as gay mar­riage—has provided him a clear edge with evan­gel­ic­als for whom cul­tur­al is­sues and per­son­al val­ues are para­mount. Den­nis Googe, a small busi­ness own­er from Rock Hill, South Car­o­lina, who at­ten­ded Don­ald Trump’s re­cent rally there, is one of them. Though Googe said he ad­mired Trump, he planned to vote for Cruz “be­cause he is sol­id in his be­lief against abor­tion and ho­mo­sexu­al and les­bi­an mar­riage, and Mr. Trump some­times comes across as he may not be.” 
Cruz’s re­cent at­tacks on Trump for em­body­ing “New York val­ues” may help the sen­at­or ce­ment oth­er evan­gel­ic­als like Googe torn between their ad­mir­a­tion for Trump’s ar­dor and their “Chris­ti­an con­vic­tions,” as Googe puts it. Trump gave Cruz an as­sist in that ef­fort by mangling a bible verse dur­ing his Liberty speech on Monday.

Cruz’s prob­lem, many ana­lysts say, is that even many evan­gel­ic­als this year may find Trump’s anti-es­tab­lish­ment, anti-im­mig­rant, anti-trade ar­gu­ments more com­pel­ling than so­cial is­sues. The evan­gel­ic­als drawn to Trump “are a dif­fer­ent class of voters,” says John Brabend­er, the chief strategist in 2012 for San­tor­um. “My im­pres­sion is they are first and fore­most driv­en by who they are as far as oc­cu­pa­tion, in­come, life­style, than wheth­er they are evan­gel­ic­al or not.” 
Watch­ing from South Car­o­lina, Smith agrees that Cruz may find it more dif­fi­cult than many ex­pect to dis­lodge Trump from his beach­head among evan­gel­ic­als, es­pe­cially work­ing-class ones.

Tellingly, Smith says, the sin­cer­ity of Trump’s re­li­gious faith is draw­ing much less dis­cus­sion than de­bates about Rom­ney’s Mor­mon re­li­gion did in 2012. “There is not a lot of ob­ses­sion among blue-col­lar evan­gel­ic­als with minor points of theo­logy,” Smith says. “Those things go to the mar­gins when people feel des­per­ate and the Re­pub­lic­an primary elect­or­ate feels to me a little des­per­ate right now.”

Personally, I think this just exposes one of the central fallacies about the Republican coalition. The white working class types who call themselves social conservatives and identify as evangelicals say this out tribal identity more than ideology. They are economically screwed every which way, with little hope of any improvement. But lets not kid ourselves, these economically despairing, non-ideological, casual evangelicals are mostly drawn to the GOP because it is the party that doesn't have blacks, mexicans, feminists, liberals, city slickers and hippies in it, none of whom they can stand and all of whom they blame for the country going to hell in  handbasket and the death of their own prospects . It's not complicated. That's the fundamental complaint about "political correctness"  --- the necessity to pretend that you don't hate all those people.

Trump is speaking to all that much more emphatically than Cruz or anyone else on the scene. He's giving these folks permission to let their freak flag fly and providing a way to connect with each other without all the trappings of religion and phony piety they are usually required to pretend to care about. They don't have to sit through arcane lectures about tax policy and "small government" or pretend to care about a bunch of abstractions about the gold standard or "tort reform!". Trump is about guns, race, law and order and American dominance, period. That's the stripped down "conservatism" these folks really care about. It's obvious to them that this is what is needed to make America --- and their own lives --- "great again."

The question is whether he will be able to capture enough of the rest of the coalition to win the nomination. So far, it's looking pretty good.

.