We are one week ahead of the Iowa caucuses and all hell has broken loose in the Republican Party. What was once thought would be a simple two lane race between an “establishment” candidate and an “outsider” candidate has given way to a free for all. And what it reveals is a number of fault lines in what was once a party neatly unified by its loathing of taxes, its commitment to “family values” and its reverence for Old Glory. This election is showing that it’s way more complicated than that.
We know the GOP grassroots are divided by their love for Senator Ted Cruz and their adoration for the pompadoured billionaire gadfly Donald Trump. Those two candidates are garnering the support of nearly half the party and in some states polling shows they have a majority. The fight is starting to get vicious. You have some talk radio hosts treading carefully so as not to anger anyone in the audience while others are taking the fight to the candidates themselves.
Most movement conservatives see Cruz as their perfect avatar. And he is. He checks every box. When he went to Washington he put his reputation where his mouth is and followed the far right agenda to the letter. But apparently a whole bunch of other far right Republicans are unimpressed. They want a full blown white nationalist and Trump is their man. What was once a strong faction organized around social conservatism and small government ideology is now divided in two. It’s hand to hand combat in the trenches.
In New Hampshire, Cruz is down with the rest of the herd fighting for second place, so the Trump phenomenon is even more dominant there than it is elsewhere. But unless Cruz makes a dismal showing in Iowa, one can expect him to come back in South Carolina and the cage match will resume.
The rest of the Republican base doesn’t know what’s hit them. They seem to be shell shocked and wondering what in the world has happened to their party. This piece in the New York Times about New Hampshire voters poignantly illustrates their bewilderment:
Mrs. Cleveland put it plainly: “I don’t like Trump.”
In this, the 70-year-old from Hollis, N.H., has ample, baffled and agonized company in New Hampshire as the presidential primary enters its final, frenzied weeks, with Donald J. Trump remaining atop poll after poll of the state’s Republican electorate.
Or is he? So deep is the dislike for him in some quarters that people like Mrs. Cleveland’s husband, Doug, question the accuracy of polls that so consistently identify Mr. Trump as leading the field with around 32 percent. “I’ve never met a single one of them,”
Mr. Cleveland said about those said to be backing Mr. Trump. “Where are all these Trump supporters? Everyone we know is supporting somebody else.”
If those voters are looking for the Republican elites to help them, they are in for a surprise. They too have joined the Cruz-Trump battle, but for completely different reasons.
I had thought a couple of weeks ago that the establishment was coalescing around Ted Cruz, not because they love him so much but simply because Trump had to be stopped. (Of course Trump had to be stopped, right?) There were some indications from the likes of National Review editor Rich Lowry. For instance his comments on Fox last September made clear that he wasn’t a fan:
Lowry: Look, Trump obviously attacks everyone, but she has become a much bigger target and part of what’s going on here is that last debate, let’s be honest, Carly cut his balls off with the precision of a surgeon…Kelly: What did you just say!Lowry: …And he knows it.Kelly: You can’t say that.Lowry: He’s insulted and bullied his way to the top of the polls…