Super Tuesday was a very good night for Donald Trump. He didn’t completely run the table but he cemented his status as the frontrunner. And the GOP establishment is now in full-fledged panic mode. Some of us tried to warn them. And I hate to admit it but one of the foremost purveyors of beltway conventional wisdom had it right as well. As I noted back in June when Trump announced, the only one to take Trump seriously was Bloomberg News’ Mark Halperin, whose first impression was quite a bit less derisive than anyone else’s:
Best moment: Protracted run-up to formal declaration of candidacy was spirited and engaging.
Worst moment: Lost his rhythm a bit whenever cheerful supporters in the crowd tossed out helpful prompts or encouraging chants.
Overall: A madcap production–garrulous, grandiose, and intense—that displayed his abundant strengths and acute weaknesses. For the first time in decades, Trump is a true underdog, but his ability to shape the contours of the nomination fight should not be ignored. On the debate stage, through TV advertising (positive and negative), in earned media, and by drawing crowds, Trump has the potential to be a big 2016 player. He staged an announcement event like no other, and now he will deliver a candidacy the likes of which the country has never seen.
Substance: Made a concerted and admirable effort to laundry-list his presidential plans before the speech was finished, calling for the replacement of Obamacare, cautioning foreign adversaries about messing with the U.S., expressing opposition to the current trade bill, promising to build a southern border wall and sticking Mexico with the bill, terminating Obama’s executive order on immigration, supporting the Second Amendment, ending Common Core, rebuilding infrastructure, resisting cuts in entitlement programs. Still, left open too many questions about the hows and wherefores, given that he has never run for nor held office.
That’s still pretty much the Trump agenda, isn’t it? So let’s give Halperin his due. He couldn’t have known at the time how popular Trump’s calls for torture, war crimes and summary execution would be, but he had a good sense of the Republican electorate’s thirst for what he was offering from the very beginning. And there are very few mainstream media analysts about whom you can say the same thing.
Yesterday, Politico did a rundown on the media’s dismissal of Trump as an impossibility or a simple joke over the past few months:
David Remnick, editor of The New Yorker, told his readers last summer that Donald Trump was running for president to promote his own brand and that the “whole con might end well before the first snows in Sioux City and Manchester.”
That was quite measured compared to James Fallows, the national correspondent of more than three decades for The Atlantic, who wrote confidently — and with his own bold for emphasis — “Donald Trump will not be the 45th president of the United States. Nor the 46th, nor any other number you might name. The chance of his winning the nomination and election is exactly zero.”
Those two mandarins weren’t alone in dismissing Trump’s chances.
Washington Post blogger Chris Cillizza wrote in July that “Donald Trump is not going to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2016.” And numbers guru Nate Silver told readers as recently as November to “stop freaking out” about Trump’s poll numbers.
Now all these journalists, and more, are coming to grips with their mistaken assessments.
It’s not just the press that’s waking up. As the New York Times reported late yesterday, big GOP donors are finally recognizing what’s going on as well:
A “super PAC” that was formed by members of the Ricketts family is boosting its staff and planning a full-fledged campaign against Donald J. Trump — and his surrogates — in an effort to thwart his rise, including hiring the former communications director to Jeb Bush and creating an opposition research wing.
Tim Miller, who was Mr. Bush’s top spokesman during his presidential run, will now work for Our Principles PAC, the group founded in the final weeks before the Iowa caucuses to try to prevent Mr. Trump from winning the nomination, according to officials with the group.
With additional funding from sources other than Marlene Ricketts, the group is planning to focus on daily opposition research attacks on Mr. Trump, particularly in March 8 andMarch 15 states, officials with the group said.
Democratic operative Paul Begala quipped on CNN last night that it seems these people are determined to help Trump rather than hurt him. By announcing this project to the world, they are almost guaranteeing that his popularity will grow: His followers loathe the “establishment” and see all attacks by them on their hero to be signs that he is on the right track.