Turnout myths
by digby
This should be obvious but considering all the Villagers wringing their hands about the alleged "enthusiasm gap" among Democrats, but
I guess it has to be spelled out:
But Democrats shouldn’t worry. Republicans shouldn’t celebrate. As others have pointed out, voter turnout is an indication of the competitiveness of a primary contest, not of what will happen in the general election. The GOP presidential primary is more competitive than the Democratic race.
Indeed, history suggests that there is no relationship between primary turnout and the general election outcome. You can see this on the most basic level by looking at raw turnout in years in which both parties had competitive primaries. There have been six of those years in the modern era: 1976, 1980, 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2008.
The Democrats are having a spirited primary and it's not done yet. And the party's agenda is being seriously challenged. But the Republicans are having a hysterical meltdown that could result in the party's destruction. Of course their turn-out is higher.
Regardless of which candidate wins the Democratic Party it's certain that turnout will be up in November because the GOP is likely going to nominate one of two extremists --- likely the megalomaniacal Bond villain over the far right Dominionist Bircher. The bigger question is whether or not the Republicans will match it. They might. Their base is very worked up. But whatever moderates they have left are between a rock and hard place. They hate the Democrats as much as ever but a vote for Trump or Cruz is a bridge too far. I just don't know how many of them there are so Dems should not be complacent. They need to make sure they get every last voter out even if the GOP seems depressed once all the dust has settled. You cannot take a chance that Donald Trump or Ted Cruz will become the most powerful single person on earth.
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