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Hullabaloo


Tuesday, May 03, 2016

 
Somebody's delusional

by digby



















Or he senses some kind of opportunity:

Hillary Clinton represents all of the elements of Washington DC that people are in rebellion against… I think a lot of the millennials who were voting for Bernie Sanders are not going to vote for Hillary Clinton. I think they think she’s not honest. I think they’re bothered by her scandals with the Clinton Foundation, her scandals with her email server… There’ll be a lot of Democrats out there looking for someone to go to. In addition, Trump has somehow communicated with blue collar workers across America and we certainly see this in terms of registration numbers… We’ve had a 60% increase in Republican turnout this year compared to four years ago. There’s been about a 30% Democrat turnout decrease over 2008, the last time they had a contested nomination… Secretary Clinton is not exactly rousing people’s excitement…

I think it’s important this year because of the unique moment in time and because of the uniqueness of Donald Trump to erase all of our thinking about what kind of states could be in play. I think if Trump runs as aggressive campaign in the general election as he has done in the primaries all 50 states could be in play.

Why delusional?

Our previous survey results suggested that as of early January, 46.7 percent of voters would vote for a Democrat and 43.1 percent would vote for a Republican in the upcoming presidential election. These results suggested a greater vote for the Democratic candidate. In March, our results indicate that 53.0 percent of voters will vote for a Democrat, and 37.9 percent will vote for a Republican in the upcoming presidential election, suggesting that the Democratic candidates are pulling ahead of the Republicans in the national vote.

I guess they have to say this. And who knows? Maybe it will happen that way. A lot of Republicans seem to think that because the young progressives prefer Bernie Sanders and both candidates are against trade deals, they are ripe for the picking. Let's just say that's not born out by the polling which shows that only 17% of millennials have a favorable opinion of Trump.

But Gingrich is a demagogue and an authoritarian tyrant too so he's naturally drawn to Trump. They are cut from the same cloth. (It's doubtful that Trump has the same regard for him, however.  He's a "loser" who was ignominiously forced to resign from his leadership position.) Gingrich is undoubtedly very impressed with Trump's ability to command the attention of the media and the country and his ability to run his campaign on his own terms. He was that kind of politician himself although without the resources and the glamour.

But Gingrich and Trump are both convinced of something that just isn't true: that the majority of Americans like what Trump is selling when the evidence is that the more people see of him the more they loathe him. Yes, Republicans are starting to accept that he's going to be the nominee but he's hardly winning the nomination by acclamation.

.