Democrats "cleaning up" in special elections
by Tom Sullivan
Philip Spagnuolo, a substance abuse counselor, picked up a New Hampshire state House seat last night in a district Donald Trump won by 13-points in 2016. The Hill reports the special election was triggered by the death in September of state Rep. Donald Flanders (R). Spagnolo defeated his Republican opponent by 7 points.
In Connecticut, Democrat Phil Young defeated Republican Bill Cabral in the the contest to fill the vacancy in House District 120 created when former State Rep. Laura Hoydick, a Republican, resigned upon becoming mayor in Stratford. Republicans had held the seat for over 40 years. Hillary Clinton narrowly won the district in 2016.
The night was not all the Democrats'. In Kentucky, Republican Robert Goforth defeated Democrat Kelly Smith for the 8th House District vacated by Republican Marie Rader who resigned in December for health reasons. Goforth bested Smith by a 2 to 1 margin.
But by now, astute reader, you may be detecting a trend. "Democrats are cleaning up in special elections," reads the subhead in Matthew Yglesias' report at Vox:
According to an extremely useful comprehensives spreadsheet compiled by Daily Kos, across 70 special elections in 2017, Democrats ran 10 points ahead of Clinton and 7 points ahead of Obama’s 2012 results. Those numbers have accelerated into 2018. Across 16 races, Democrats are running 27 points ahead of Clinton and 15 points ahead of Barack Obama.Per the Daily Kos tally, the New Hampshire win marks the 40th special election win for Democrats since Donald Trump won in November 2016. Republicans have flipped four seats.
Historically speaking, special election results usually are somewhat predictive of midterm general election outcomes, though I don’t think anyone believes it’s realistic for Democrats to obtain a nationwide 27-point swing relative to Clinton’s numbers.