And so we wait
by Tom Sullivan
It is finished. Special counsel Robert Mueller issued his Trump-Russia final "confidential report" to Attorney General William Barr. After 22 months of investigation, dozens of indictments, a string of convictions, and weeks of breathless buildup, the major new development on Friday evening is the report comes with no new indictments.
Barr's letter to leaders of the House and Senate Judiciary Committees announcing the report informed them he might be able to advise them on Mueller's principal conclusions by the weekend. Barr also advised, per regulations, there were no instances in which the Department of Justice refused any requests by Mueller to pursue additional actions.
With further information "em-Barr-goed," as one Twitter user quipped, Friday evening reporting was a flurry of "hurry up and wait" panels and a kind of "This Is Your Life" recap of the Mueller investigation, along with speculation on what the report might conclude and, whatever it contains, what that might and might not mean and what Democrats might and might not do.
Politico summarized the situation:
But for now, there’s nothing of substance to digest. No answer to whether Trump and his presidential campaign conspired with the Kremlin to win the White House. No answer to whether the president obstructed justice to stop a probe into that conspiracy ... And so we wait.Just because Mueller's part is done is not an end to investigations spun off by Mueller and the House investigations barely underway. There may yet be more indictments already under seal. There are still federal investigations ongoing in the Southern District of New York.
“He’s almost like a venture capital incubator who has spun out multiple lines of business,” said David Kris, a former Justice Department national security division chief and founder of the consulting firm Culper Partners. “He’s shown us an awful lot, and yet I think there’s an awful lot more to come.”So much has come out in packets, Kris continued, “I think if you took it all in in one day, it would kill you. It’s simply too much.”
Gonna talk about things we don't know about the Mueller report, but will start by saying Barr's willingness to issue quick public summary probably means it is not that damning towards Trump.
— emptywheel (@emptywheel) March 22, 2019
That said, the report could be any of four general things:
— emptywheel (@emptywheel) March 22, 2019
1) Much ado about nothing accompanied w/Trump's paranoid response
2) A very damning report that doesn't amount to criminal behavior
3) Clear evidence of conspiracy but that couldn't be charged bc of lack of (admissible) evidence, presidential prerogatives over FP and pardons and firing, etc
— emptywheel (@emptywheel) March 22, 2019
4) A recommendation for impeachment bc Trump did conspire
Oops, forgot 5.
— emptywheel (@emptywheel) March 22, 2019
5) Strong evidence of conspiracy, but Corsi, Manafort, and Stone's lies prevented charging the conspiracy
A huge outstanding threat to the sitting president is what New York state prosecutors and SDNY will do vis-à-vis their investigations into the Trump family's business practices, the Trump Organization, and the speed with which they do it. Donald Trump's financial empire is at risk under RICO statutes. He cares more about that than the flag he hugs, immigrants on the southern border, or his tenure in the Oval Office. What sort of "deal" might the dealmaker make to preserve any of that? That is, depending on what happens in New York, impeachment may not be the only lever for removing Trump from office.Also: It's possible Mueller will say, Stone and Manafort clearly conspired, but given their existing legal exposure, it wasn't worth the intelligence exposure to charge them.
— emptywheel (@emptywheel) March 23, 2019