Digby's Hullabaloo
2801 Ocean Park Blvd.
Box 157
Santa Monica, Ca 90405

Facebook: Digby Parton

@BloggersRUs (Tom Sullivan)

thedigbyblog at gmail
satniteflix at gmail
publius.gaius at gmail
tpostsully at gmail
Spockosbrain at gmail
Richardein at me.com


Mother Jones
Raw Story
Huffington Post
Crooks and Liars
American Prospect
New Republic

Denofcinema.com: Saturday Night at the Movies by Dennis Hartley review archive

January 2003 February 2003 March 2003 April 2003 May 2003 June 2003 July 2003 August 2003 September 2003 October 2003 November 2003 December 2003 January 2004 February 2004 March 2004 April 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004 August 2004 September 2004 October 2004 November 2004 December 2004 January 2005 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 June 2007 July 2007 August 2007 September 2007 October 2007 November 2007 December 2007 January 2008 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 June 2008 July 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 December 2008 January 2009 February 2009 March 2009 April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010 August 2010 September 2010 October 2010 November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 June 2011 July 2011 August 2011 September 2011 October 2011 November 2011 December 2011 January 2012 February 2012 March 2012 April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 September 2012 October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 May 2013 June 2013 July 2013 August 2013 September 2013 October 2013 November 2013 December 2013 January 2014 February 2014 March 2014 April 2014 May 2014 June 2014 July 2014 August 2014 September 2014 October 2014 November 2014 December 2014 January 2015 February 2015 March 2015 April 2015 May 2015 June 2015 July 2015 August 2015 September 2015 October 2015 November 2015 December 2015 January 2016 February 2016 March 2016 April 2016 May 2016 June 2016 July 2016 August 2016 September 2016 October 2016 November 2016 December 2016 January 2017 February 2017 March 2017 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017 September 2017 October 2017 November 2017 December 2017 January 2018 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018


This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?


Saturday, September 17, 2016


Polls don't vote

by Tom Sullivan

National presidential polls have tightened a little, so skittish lefties are getting skittish again. Or could it be breathless reports about which Democrat will replace Hillary Clinton when she drops out of the race are clumsy attempts at a mind f**k by our friends on the right?


On Monday, it was Cokie Roberts on NPR claiming (in response to Hillary Clinton's walking pneumonia) that Democrats are "nervously beginning to whisper about ... having her step aside." You know, Democrats. Democrats like Dick Morris.

On Friday, it was The Hill and the Washington Times hyping polling that found "48% of Likely Democratic Voters believe Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, Clinton’s primary rival, should be their party’s nominee if health issues forced her out of the race." You know, polling. By pollsters like Rasmussen.

Nancy LeTourneau at Washington Monthly pushed back against nervousness from the merchants of doubt on Thursday. She cited Sam Wang (Princeton Election Consortium) and others, writing:

Wang says Clinton’s probability of winning is 90%. The Upshot has it at 76%. FiveThirtyEight says its at 64%. In other words, none of them are saying that Trump has more than a 36% chance of winning. Those are not great odds for him. If this were any other presidential election in recent memory, it would constitute pretty good news for Democrats. But coming off the talk about a landslide, it has some people worried.
Those would be people who think polls vote. [Pro Tip: They don't]

The Hill went to bat twice yesterday, citing Donald Trump's staying power (you knew there was a reason he released test results on his testosterone level). The Hill writes:
One reason for his strength: People who intend to vote for him are more enthusiastic about doing so than those planning to back Clinton, according to three major recent polls.

That fact alone makes some Republicans bullish about Trump’s prospects.
Testosterone. Strength. Bullish. You get the picture. Skirts need not apply. This is man's work.
A Washington Post/ABC News poll found that 46 percent of Trump backers were “very enthusiastic,” compared with only 33 percent of Clinton supporters. And a New York Times/CBS News poll saw Trump outperforming Clinton by the same metric, 45 percent to 36 percent.
So with all that enthusiasm on paper, how is Trump doing on manpower? The Hill again:
Earlier this month, the RNC communications director Sean Spicer told CNN’s “New Day,” “I don’t mean to be facetious, but offices don’t vote. People do.”

That’s just as well for the Trump campaign. An analysis by "PBS Newshour” found that at the end of last month, Clinton had 291 field offices in battleground states to just 88 for Trump.
From what I've seen here, not only does Clinton have offices, she has staff filling them and people volunteering for them. They sent me the first name of a voter who might need a ride to the polls in mid-August.

LeTourneau believes the hiring of Kellyanne Conway represents (again) the long awaited Trump pivot:
... we have now passed Labor Day and Ms. Conway’s work is focused on connecting with groups that have typically voted Republican. Beyond that, their challenge will be to convince “persuadables” and get out the vote. That has usually been the function of the campaign’s ground game – which basically doesn’t exist for Trump.
Polls don't vote. Voters do. Percentages of enthusiastic supporters don't win elections. Numbers of raw votes do. Enthusiasm helps motivate voters, sure. But making sure they actually register and show up at the polls takes a strong ground game. Trump doesn't have one. As the Good Book says in large, friendly letters: 'DON'T PANIC'.