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Hullabaloo


Friday, May 05, 2017

 
Risky business

by digby





TPM reports:

Cook Political Report on Friday morning changed its ratings for 20 House seats, predicting that Democrats’ odds of winning those districts has increased now that House Republicans passed a bill to repeal Obamacare.

“Although it’s the first of potentially many explosive votes, House Republicans’ willingness to spend political capital on a proposal that garnered the support of just 17 percent of the public in a March Quinnipiac poll is consistent with past scenarios that have generated a midterm wave,” Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman wrote in a post explaining the ratings changes. “Not only did dozens of Republicans in marginal districts just hitch their names to an unpopular piece of legislation, Democrats just received another valuable candidate recruitment tool.”

He wrote that for some Republicans, backing the American Health Care Act is an “unequivocal political risk.”


Cook Political Report moved three districts from leaning Republican to toss-ups, 11 districts from likely Republican to leaning Republican and six districts from solid Republican to leaning Republican.

That's just day one.

I would never under-estimate the ability of the Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory but this is certainly a good sign. And let's face facts, 2018 will be a referendum on the Orange Julius Caesar in the White House and so far he's about as popular as chlamydia. The Democrats need to get their people out. If they do that,they can have a wave election. If they don't Trump's dubious victory will be validated and he will be strengthened.

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