Manage Expectations and Gear Up for A Fight by tristero

We conducted an analysis to measure how hard it would be for Democrats in each state to win additional seats under these gerrymandered maps. The results are sobering. In 2006, a roughly five-and-a-half-point lead in the national popular vote was enough for Democrats to pick up 31 seats and win back the House majority they had lost to Newt Gingrich and his Contract With America 12 years before. 

But our research shows that a similar margin of victory in 2018 would most likely net Democrats only 13 seats, leaving the Republicans firmly in charge. Just to get the thinnest of majorities in the House, Democrats would need around an 11-point win in the national popular vote. They haven’t come close to winning by that much in a midterm election since 1982...

...consider big purple battlegrounds like Ohio, Michigan and North Carolina. Voters are closely divided. But in 2011, Republicans had sole control of the map-drawing process. The extreme gerrymanders they produced ensure that Democrats will need a nearly unprecedented electoral earthquake to take any additional seats. 

In Ohio, Democrats would win their four current congressional seats with around 26 percent of the statewide vote. Our projections show they wouldn’t compete for another seat until their vote share reached nearly 55 percent, a total that they haven’t attained in any of the last six elections. 

In Michigan, Democrats would win their five current seats with around 38 percent of the statewide vote, but wouldn’t compete for a sixth seat until they reached 55 percent, a level they rarely reach in midterm years. 

In North Carolina, our research shows that Democrats would win their three current seats with around 30 percent of the vote, but would need to win an extra 23 percent of the vote to compete for an additional seat. They obtained a share of the vote this high only in the Obama wave of 2008. 

None of this means Democrats can’t win the House. This election could prove very unusual.