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Sunday, April 15, 2018

More men like him than ever

by digby

A lot of white men just like the cut of his jib. Everyone else loathes him.
New polling from ABC:

The president remains poorly rated overall in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll -– 56 percent of Americans disapprove of his job performance, versus 40 percent who approve, and “strong” disapprovers outnumber strong approvers by nearly 2-1.

His average approval rating after 15 months in office (38-57 percent approve/disapprove) is the lowest on record in polls dating to the Truman administration.

If the economy helps Trump, his personal style appears to hurt him. By a nearly 2-1 margin (61-32 percent), the public sees him unfavorably “as a person” in this poll, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates. There’s a close link between this view and his job rating: Among those who dislike him personally, 84 percent also disapprove of his work in office.

That’s not always the case. In March 1999, after his impeachment trial, Bill Clinton’s personal favorability rating was even worse than Trump’s today, 67-30 percent, unfavorable-favorable. But Clinton managed a 64 percent job approval rating at the same time. His personal popularity was much less correlated with his job approval than Trump’s is today.

Trump’s rating for handling the economy, while better than his overall approval, also is weak in comparative terms. The last time consumer confidence was this high, Clinton had just left office with 76 percent approval for his handling of the economy, 30 points higher than Trump’s now. Clinton’s overall job approval was 65 percent, 25 points higher than Trump’s.

Additionally, while the economy helps Trump, he faces skepticism on one prominent economic initiative, the trade tariffs he’s threatened. Americans are more apt to think these tariffs will be bad for U.S. jobs than good for them, 49-36 percent.

That said, the tariffs –- aimed at cheap steel and aluminum imports -– are better received in the Midwest, where there’s an even division on whether they’re good or bad for jobs. And Trump’s approval rating has jumped 12 points in the Midwest since January to a new high, 48 percent.

Trump also is at a numerical high (by a single point) in job approval among men, at 49 percent approval; at majority approval (53 percent) among whites for the first time in a year; and has jumped to a new high among conservatives, 74 percent approval, up 9 points just since January. At the same time, his approval rating among nonwhites, 17 percent, is its lowest on record.

Among the most prominent elements of public attitudes toward Trump is the vast gender gap in his basic ratings. While men divide evenly on his job performance, 49-47 percent, women disapprove by a 2-1 margin, 32-64 percent. And while men see him more unfavorably than favorably as a person by 12 points, 53-41 percent, women do so by a 44-point margin, 68-24 percent.

Education and race are additional factors. Seventy-three percent of college-educated white women see Trump unfavorably as a person, while just 35 percent of non-college white men share that assessment. Conversely, 70 percent of non-college white men approve of his job performance; only 34 percent of college-educated white women agree.

Trump’s challenges among women are evident in other data. As reported Friday, women are much more apt than men to support extending special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into whether or not Trump’s associates paid hush money to women who claimed they’d had affairs with him. Sixty-five percent of women support such an investigation, vs. 50 percent of men.

Another one from NBC:

An advantage in intensity — against President Donald Trump and for voting in November — is fueling Democrats ahead of the midterm elections that take place more than six months from now, according to a new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

But the poll doesn’t show “knockout numbers” for Democrats, which gives Republicans a chance of retaining control of Congress, says Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart and his team at Hart Research Associates.

“You don’t see knockout numbers here in April. You see problematic numbers [for Republicans],” he said.

In the poll, Democrats enjoy a 7-point advantage in congressional preference, with 47 percent of voters wanting a Democratic-controlled Congress, and with 40 percent preferring a GOP-controlled Congress.

That’s down from the Democrats’ 10-point edge in March, 50 percent to 40 percent, although the change is well within the poll’s margin of error.

In past wave cycles for Democrats — in 2006 and 2008 — the NBC/WSJ poll typically found Democrats with a solid double-digit lead in congressional preference.

But the current poll shows Democrats with a significant advantage in enthusiasm, with 66 percent of Democrats expressing a high level of interest (either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale) in November’s elections, versus 49 percent for Republicans.

That’s a reversal from the merged NBC/WSJ polling data in 2010 — a wave year for Republicans — when 66 percent of Republicans expressed a high level of interest, compared with 49 percent for Democrats.

And among these high-interest voters in this new poll, Democrats lead Republicans in congressional preference by 21 points, 57 percent to 36 percent.

“That enthusiasm is a very powerful signal of a Democratic edge,” McInturff said, but he cautioned that high-interest voters “are a fraction of all overall voters.” (Not every voter is a “9” or “10.”)

The NBC/WSJ poll also finds Trump’s job-approval rating among all adults at 39 percent — down four points from last month. Fifty-seven percent say they disapprove of the president’s job performance.

Nobody has a good thing to say about Democrats so it isn't surprising that it isn't going to be a slam dunk. Don't be shocked if they don't pull it off. We are in a period of bizarre extremes and structural strain and it's unknown whether this presidency is going to be seen as an anomaly or a precursor.

I wouldn't take anything for granted.