It's show time…
by Tom Sullivan
Polls are open across most of the country.
Monday morning, Cook's Political Report moved nine seats towards Democrats:
A "Red Exodus" is contributing to the potential "Blue Wave:" of Republicans' 41 open seats, 15 are rated as Toss Ups or worse, and another five are only in Lean Republican.
Just by winning all of the races at least "leaning" their way, Democrats would net 16 of the 23 seats they need for a majority. In that scenario, Democrats would only need to win eight of the 30 races in Toss Up to win control (they currently hold one Toss Up, Minnesota's 1st CD). Conversely, Republicans would likely need to win 23 of the 30 Toss Up races to keep their majority. That's not impossible, but it's very difficult.
The New York Times' Upshot finds a 3-point move towards Democrats since its September baseline numbers.NEW at @CookPolitical: 10 final House rating changes. Biggest moves are towards Dems:#FL25: Diaz-Balart (R) - Likely R to Lean R#GA06: Handel (R) - Lean R to Toss Up#MI06: Upton (R) - Likely R to Lean R#PA10: Perry (R) - Lean R to Toss Up#WA08: OPEN (R) - Toss Up to Lean D
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2018
As we saw yesterday, the youth votes in several key states is breaking records. They are not being captured in the polls.IGNORE THE POLLSTERS! In this week's NY Times/Siena poll of the Senate race in Texas they reached out to 51,983 Texans. Only 800 gave them an answer! And of the 7,219 young voters (18-29 yrs old) they "polled", only 66 responded! Polls are wrong! Keep working & making calls!
— Michael Moore (@MMFlint) November 4, 2018