These two divisions—gender and education—have radically changed the political orientation of white voters. The economy and cultural differences are two main causes. The recession hit people without college degrees hard, and many felt left out of the recovery that followed. As the chart below shows, the income of men with only a high-school diploma actually fell in the decade from 2008 to 2017.
Differences in cultural values and views of government widened during President Obama’s time in office, when he promised to build an activist government that would increase spending on education and social programs. Among white voter groups, women with college degrees were by far the most supportive of Mr. Obama’s governing philosophy, while men without degrees have grown more skeptical of it, especially in the past three years.
President
Trump promised an “America first’’ government aimed largely at helping the “forgotten men and women’’ in blue-collar communities. Under his tenure, the two white groups have moved further apart. The men without bachelor’s degrees have grown warmer toward Mr. Trump since his inauguration, while the views of the women with degrees have grown more negative.
Net positive or negative view of President Trump since inaugurationSource: WSJ/NBC News telephone polls
The differences between the two groups are stark on many of the issues dominating the midterm campaign: immigration, gun control and health care. In each case, white men without college degrees support Mr. Trump’s policy stance, while white women with degrees are opposed.
Democratic
candidates have campaigned heavily this year on calls to ban assault weapons and preserve the Affordable Care Act, aligning with the views of college-educated white women and reversing their reluctance to embrace those issues four years ago. Republican candidates have campaigned more extensively than in the past on measures to stop illegal immigration, a stance strongly adopted by white men without bachelor’s degrees.
The changes help explain
why Democrats are nominating so many women for Congress, and why the fight for control of the House has shifted to districts with higher levels of education. One other big shift in the electorate further shows how the Republican appeal among college-educated voters is weakening: White men with bachelor’s degrees, once the most reliable Republican voters, now swing between parties and in the past year have consistently polled in favor of Democrats.
Women nominated for House seatsSource: Rutgers University Center for American Women and
In July 2006, about half of the most vulnerable GOP-held districts exceeded the national average for bachelor’s degrees. This year, about 70% of the GOP’s at-risk districts exceed the national average.