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Hullabaloo


Friday, January 11, 2019

 
The numbers are getting worse

by digby

NPR-IPSOS has a new poll out
on the wall and the shutdown. It's not popular:


Three-quarters of Americans say the government shutdown, now tied for the longest in U.S. history, is "embarrassing for the country," including a majority of Republicans, a new NPR/Ipsos poll finds.

If no deal is struck by midnight Friday, this partial shutdown will be the longest ever. From late 1995 to early 1996, the government was shut down for 21 days. Friday is the 21st day of this current shutdown. Neither side appears ready to budge, and this polling and others make Democrats feel they have the upper hand.

And they have reason to feel that way — about 7 in 10 in the NPR/Ipsos poll also say the government shutdown is going to hurt the country, that it will hurt the economy and that Congress should pass a bill to reopen the government now while budget talks continue. Just 3 in 10 believe the government should remain closed until there is funding for a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.

He's losing Republicans on this one. That's an ominous sign for him. They usually love shutdowns.

The NPR/Ipsos poll also found President Trump's Oval Office address Tuesday had little effect. Just 10 percent of Americans said the president's speech brought the country closer to ending the government shutdown. (Nearly 4 in 10 said they did not watch or even follow the president's address.)

And not many, if anyone, beyond his base say his speech convinced them that there is a "crisis" at the Southern U.S. border. Just 38 percent of Americans overall said his speech convinced them of a crisis at the border, and only about a third said his speech convinced them there is a need for a wall along the border.

Independents are not with the president on either of those critical points. By a 50-to-27 percent margin, independents said they disagreed that the president's speech convinced them of a need for a wall, and by a 45-to-32 percent margin, independents said the president's speech did not convince them of a crisis at the border. Fifty-three percent of independents said it's never OK to shut down the government, as did 50 percent of Democrats. Just 25 percent of Republicans, though, said the same.

About two-thirds of Republicans said the president's speech helped convince them there's a crisis at the border and a need for a wall.
[...]
56 percent don't think federal workers should be working without pay to keep government services running, and 83 percent think they should get back pay for the time they do work. Two-thirds even think federal contractors should get back pay. (Congress is set to pass legislation that would pay federal workers once the shutdown ends, which Trump is expected to sign.)

What's more, when asked what they think about the shutdown, the most prevalent answers were that it was unfair for workers, that it was wrong and that too many were working without pay.

This isn't working for them. But since they live in Bizarro World they think it's tremendously popular and that they are going to be richly rewarded for their "strength" and dominance.

Polls should be meaningful in a situation like this. But Trump doesn't believe them and the rest of the party is still soiling their drawers at the thought of opposing him.

The latest wrinkle is that Freedom Caucus types (and some duffers like Grassley) are pushing him to hold out and not do the bogus "emergency" ploy to get himself out of this corner because they have "principles." Instead, they want him to just keep the government closed until the Democrats cry uncle.

These people are impervious to reality at this point.

Hopefully, Trump has enough of a survival instinct to realize that this is not in his interest, but who knows? I don't know where we are.

.