Regime change begins at home
by Tom Sullivan
"My fellow Americans, I am pleased to tell you that I have signed legislation to outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes," President Ronald Reagan quipped into a live mic during his 1984 reelection campaign. Swap out 'Russia' with 'Iran' and it's déjà vu all over again.
Only this time, National Security Advisor John Bolton isn't kidding. Nor are Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and CIA director Gina Haspel who approved the plan with Bolton. The president of the United States was in there somewhere.
The White House ordered air strikes against Iranian radar installations and missile batteries for Friday morning in retaliation for the downing of a U.S. surveillance drone in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. and Iran dispute just where the drone was in respect to Iranian air space when it was shot down. The Iranians claim they had sent multiple warnings to the unmanned drone several times before firing on it. If true, how the drone might receive them is unclear.
Donald Trump issued a threatening tweet Thursday morning: "Iran made a very big mistake." Hours later, he said the attack was likely an accident. "I think probably Iran made a mistake - I would imagine it was a general or somebody that made a mistake in shooting that drone down," Trump said.
Yet, Trump sent warnings of retaliatory strikes overnight to Iran through Oman. Then, Trump abruptly called them off. Planes were already in the air and ships positioned, the New York Times reports.
U.S. forces stationed on naval ships were woken up at 02 in the morning because they were "within the hour" of striking #Iran but then nothing happened, per a Pentagon source. This aligns with reporting in the @nytimes and by @Newsweek
— Jim LaPorta (@JimLaPorta) June 21, 2019
The President is caught between Republicans demanding a hawkish response, Democrats warning he could "bumble" into war and Iranian policy hardliners on his own national security staff who welcome the confrontation. There is no obvious outcome that gives him the clear political win that is a frequent motivating force behind his foreign policy ventures.Trump campaigned on avoiding foreign entanglements and may need to look tough in advance of his reelection without taking the associated risks and costs that come with staring another war in the Middle East. Trump called George W. Bush's invasion of Iraq the "worst single mistake ever made in the history of our country." If Trump owned Halliburton, he might see it differently.
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It's often been remarked in Washington that Trump has been lucky not to face a sudden, serious national security emergency so far in his presidency. Well, his luck has now run out -- though he will get little sympathy from critics who long predicted his hard line Iran policy would precipitate exactly this scenario.