Saturday, August 24, 2019
"If men were angels ..."
The New York Times explains what the hell he's talking about:
President Trump asserted on Saturday that he has the authority to make good on his threat to force all American businesses to leave China, citing a national security law that has been used mainly to target terrorists, drug traffickers and pariah states like Iran, Syria and North Korea.
As he arrived in France for the annual meeting of the Group of 7 powers, Mr. Trump posted a message on Twitter citing the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, a law originally meant to enable a president to isolate criminal regimes not sever economic ties with a major trading partner over a tariff dispute.
The president’s threat to all but cut off one of America’s most important trading relationships could disrupt a global economy already on the edge of recession amid his trade war while further unsettling giant companies in the United States that rely on China in their production and sale of everything from clothing to smart telephones.
Mr. Trump has often made drastic threats as a negotiating ploy to force a partner to offer concessions, as when he vowed to close the border with Mexico or impose tariffs on its goods to force action to halt illegal immigration. But if he were to follow through, it would be the most significant break with China since President Richard M. Nixon’s diplomatic opening to Beijing in the early 1970s.
Mr. Trump’s claim that he has the power to order American companies to pull out of China also represents the latest assertion of authority by a president who has repeatedly crossed lines that his predecessors have not. While he came to office criticizing President Barack Obama for exceeding the power of his office, Mr. Trump has gone even further in creative ways to take action on his priorities.
“Any invocation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act in these circumstances and for these purposes would be an abuse,” said Daniel M. Price, a former international economic adviser to President George W. Bush. “The act is intended to address extraordinary national security threats and true national emergencies, not fits of presidential pique.”
Under the weight of Mr. Trump’s tariff war, China has already fallen from America’s largest trading partner last year to the third largest this year. The United States remains China’s largest trading partner. China said Friday that it would raise tariffs on American goods in retaliation for Mr. Trump’s latest levies and the president vowed hours later to increase tariffs even further.
China’s commerce ministry issued a strongly worded statement on Saturday warning the United States to turn back from ever-escalating confrontation, but it did not threaten any new trade measures.
“This unilateral and bullying trade protectionism and extreme pressure violate the consensus of the heads of state of China and the United States, violate the principle of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit, seriously undermine the multilateral trading system and the normal international trade order,” the Chinese statement said.
American business leaders in China said on Saturday that forcing United States companies to leave the country would hurt the competitiveness of American industry and could cause heavy financial losses.
“It’s difficult to move out of China, and any time they are forced to do so by tariffs, this is a momentous act and is not in response to efficiency,” said Ker Gibbs, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai.
“When we see the president tweet something like that, we are in no position to give up the China market — it’s too large, it’s too important,” Mr. Gibbs said.
Business leaders said that if American companies were forced by Washington to leave China, the result could be a series of fire sales at greatly reduced prices. Companies from other countries, especially in Europe, would snap up the businesses on sale and it could be hard for the United States to re-enter the market later.
In raising the possibility of forcing American businesses to pull out of China on Friday, Mr. Trump framed it not as a request but as an order he had already issued.
“Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing our companies HOME and making your products in the USA,” he wrote on Twitter, adding, “We don’t need China and, frankly, would be far better off without them.”
In fact, aides said, no order has been drawn up nor was it clear that he would attempt to do so. For the moment, they said he was trying to send a message to American businesses that they should begin to disentangle from China on their own.
But it accompanied a radical shift in his assessment of President Xi Jinping of China. In the past, he has effusively praised Mr. Xi and described him as a friend, taking the Chinese leader at his word that he would stem the flow of fentanyl to the United States. In the last two days, he has accused Mr. Xi of not living up to his fentanyl pledge and described the Chinese leader as an “enemy.”
Andy Mok, a trade and geopolitics analyst at the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing, said that the Chinese government was coolly assessing the latest American actions.
“In negotiations, and especially in high-stakes negotiations, the side that reacts emotionally generally is the side that does not do well,” he said. “The U.S. side is approaching this from a more emotional side, while China is more calm and calculating.”
The International Emergency Economic Powers Act says that if the president decides that circumstances abroad have created “any unusual and extraordinary threat” to “the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States,” the president can declare a “national emergency.” This triggers special authority for the leader to regulate “any transactions in foreign exchange” by Americans.
The founders understood that leaders were untrustworthy and put together the clunky checks and balances and separation of powers that were supposed to keep any of them from becoming dictators. But once we became the world's only military superpower our congress abdicated much of its power to the president. Now we see the danger in the hands of this erratic imbecile.
Imagine what a truly cunning authoritarian would do with that. Now that Trump has broken the glass, it's almost certain we will see that unless the Democrats recognize the danger and fundamentally reform our political system.
By the way --- this sort of threat is an abuse of power. Also known as an impeachable offense. Maybe if someone calls it a kitchen table issue the Democratic leadership might become concerned.
digby 8/24/2019 11:30:00 AM