It Could Get Worse by tristero

Donald Trump may have to mediate in Kashmir after all. 

When the U.S. president suggested last month that he had been asked by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to act as middleman between India and Pakistan over the disputed Himalayan region, it looked like a gauche diplomatic gaffe, and New Delhi promptly shot him down. 

Over the past weekend, however, South Asia's most dangerous faultline has flared up to such an extent that it is no longer unthinkable that the world's global policeman could have to step in to cool tensions between two military heavyweights, both armed with nuclear weapons. 

On Monday, the Indian government announced it would revoke its part of Kashmir's special status as an autonomous region, going back on the agreement that allowed Muslim-majority Kashmir to become part of India in the first place. It's a highly assertive step from the Hindu nationalist government that effectively tears up a seven-decade-long compromise. In the build-up to the announcement, the government cut internet access, placed regional leaders under house arrest, told tourists, students and pilgrims to quit the region, announced a curfew and added even more troops to the 500,000 already stationed there. 

Trump landed himself squarely in the middle of this intractable quagmire on July 22. Seated next to Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan in the White House, he unwittingly dropped a bombshell by claiming Modi had asked him to mediate in Kashmir. 

The last U.S. president to have made a notable intervention was Bill Clinton, who helped bring to an end the brief Kargil War between India and Pakistan in Kashmir in 1999. 

Trump may just have been bragging, but it was a jaw-dropping moment in the subcontinent. India went into firefighting mode. If Modi really had made such a request for outside intervention, it would have broken an agreement with Pakistan that Kashmir could only be handled as a bilateral issue. Within the hour, the Indian foreign ministry said "no such request" had been made and its media fulminated at the suggestion. Indian Congress Party lawmaker Shashi Tharoor said: "I honestly don't think Trump has the slightest idea of what he's talking about." 

Two weeks on, though, the diplomatic stakes look way higher. India is now under pressure from groups as diverse as the Chinese government and Amnesty International.
Pakistan itself welcomed Trump's suggested mediation with a larger neighbor. Khan nodded with approval as Trump made his remarks in the White House, and said: “I can tell you that, right now, you would have the prayers of over a billion people if you can mediate and resolve this issue.” His Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said the offer was "more than Pakistan's expectations." 

Undaunted by India's pushback, Trump reaffirmed on August 2 that he was happy to intervene.