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You might need a weatherman to know

by Tom Sullivan

Air Force One is scheduled to visit Fayetteville, NC on Monday, Sept. 9, flooding permitting. The acting president has scheduled a rally there ahead of the September 10 elections in NC-3 and NC-9.

The NC-3 event is a special election to fill the seat left vacant by the death of Republican Walter Jones in February. The heavily Republican, heavily rural coastal district is expected to remain in Republican hands. The president is coming to Fayetteville to support Republican state senator Dan Bishop (author of the infamous "bathroom bill") in the NC-9 tossup do-over election delayed from 2018. An absentee ballot investigation concluded there resulted in a call for a new election and the indictment of a Republican campaign operative and six colleagues on multiple charges.

Early voting projections show Democrat Dan McCready with an edge. Unlike coast-hugging NC-3, North Carolina's Ninth Congressional District hugs the South Carolina border from Charlotte east to Fayetteville. Democrats will have a greater advantage in Mecklenburg (Charlotte) County and in Union County touching the southeast Charlotte suburbs. Voting populations trail off in the district and get more Republican as one moves east.

This will be a low turnout election. Data from Dr. William Busa of EQV Analytics backs up that prediction with graphics and commentary. Early voting so far is 56 percent of the same point in 2018. This post from Aug. 31:

While the calendar tells us that Early Voting (which ends Sept. 6) is just a bit more than half-way over, the truth is otherwise. The long Labor Day weekend now underway will take a big bite out of voting action through next Monday, particularly because 2 of NC09's 8 counties have closed all of their Early Voting sites today, all 8 counties will be closed on Sunday, and 6 will be closed on Monday. And to top it off, there's now a possibility that Hurricane Dorian could discourage travel in NC09's eastern counties beginning as early as this Wednesday. Long story short: as of today we've probably seen the vast majority of all the Early Voting ballots that will be cast in this race.

What's worse for Bishop, Busa finds Democrats' percentage of Early Voting up 3 percent over this point in 2018. Republicans? Their vote totals are down 4 points with Hurricane Dorian targeting the eastern, redder reaches of the district Thursday and Friday. By Monday, there could be flooding.

August 26-28 polling by Harper Polling and Clarity Campaign Labs gives McCready a 46-42 percent advantage, with 3 percent going to third-party candidates. With leaners thrown in, the pollsters give McCready a 49-44 edge. Donald Trump's approval rating in the district has fallen since last year, Roll Call reports, with 47 percent approving and 48 percent voicing disapproval.

Two caveats. There are still plenty of registered Democrats in these parts who have voted Republican since the Reagan years. Many Reagan Democrats simply never switched registration. This adds a margin of error to turnout estimates based on registration. Plus, Republican voters tend to bat last (on Election Day).

Dave Wasserman of Cook's Political Report tells the Charlotte Observer:

“We still view this race as a toss up, but would still be more surprised by a McCready victory,” said Dave Wasserman, an analyst for the Cook Political Report. “It’s hard to believe Democrats’ enthusiasm advantage would be greater than last fall, before they took back the House.”

Then again, Dorian might have something to say about who wins in NC-9 on September 10.

Republicans have held this seat in different configurations since 1963. Losing it ahead of 2020 could bode ill for Trump and Republicans. Taking back the seat could demonstrate the winds generated by Democrats' 2018 blue tsunami are still blowing in their favor.