Mark Meadows, we'll meet again by @BloggersRUs

Mark Meadows, we'll meet again

by Tom Sullivan


Still image from Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (1964).

Here we go (emphasis mine):

RALEIGH, N.C. — A state court on Monday blocked the use of current congressional districts in North Carolina for the 2020 election, which could lead to the drawing of new districts that would make several of the Republican-held districts far more competitive.

The state’s House delegation is made up of 10 Republicans and three Democrats, but many of the GOP-leaning districts rely on the same strategies the court rejected in a previous case about state legislative seats, including splitting Democratic strongholds in some parts of the state while packing as many Democratic voters as possible into other districts.

Drawing new House districts could spell more difficulty for either Rep. Mark Meadows or Rep. Patrick T. McHenry, Republicans who split voters in Asheville, a rapidly growing left-leaning city in the western region of the state. It could also shake up the districts surrounding the state’s high-growth urban regions.
The plaintiffs filed suit in state court after the U.S. Supreme Court took a pass this summer on ruling partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional. The state constitution guarantees that "[a]ll elections shall be free." Partisan gerrymandering, they argued, violates the established principle that elections reflect the will of the people. The three-judge panel on Wake County Superior Court agreed and threw out the congressional districts.

In ruling against the Republican-led legislators who drew (and defended them) multiple times since 2011, the judges stated that under the existing maps, "the people of our State will lose the opportunity to participate in Congressional elections conducted freely and honestly to ascertain, fairly and truthfully, the will of the people."

Given that Republican legislators recently managed under court edict to redraw the state's House and Senate districts in a matter of weeks (just approved on Monday), the court rejected arguments that time will not allow another redraw so close to the opening of the filing period on Dec. 2.

Rick Hasen of Election Law Blog ponders Republicans' next move:
The North Carolina defendants have an interesting choice to make. They could appeal the granting of this preliminary injunction in the state supreme court, though they are not likely to get a very good reception there given both the egregious nature of the gerrymander (it was the subject of the Rucho case at the U.S. Supreme Court deciding only federal constitutional issues) and the Democratic lean of the state supreme court. Alternatively, the state defendants could decide to redraw the district lines now, knowing that in doing so they might end up getting something approved which is more positive from their viewpoint than what might be done with a special master.
The ruling will throw a lot of campaigns into chaos. How much depends on the shape of final maps. Stephen Wolf of Daily Kos Elections posted a hypothetical nonpartisan map certain not to look exactly like what Republicans will try to slip by.

A map like this one is sufficient to ensure that black voters in northeastern North Carolina can continue to elect their chosen candidates. This #NC01's 2016 Dem primary turnout was 60-36 black-white, & it has voted for every Dem pres/statewide candidate since possibly the 1980s pic.twitter.com/7RyXSVsj3m

— Stephen Wolf (@PoliticsWolf) October 29, 2019

Here is another map the federal court in the Rucho v. Common Cause case found acceptable. (The numbering does not reflect existing congressional districts):

Whatever the final shape of the redrawn NC-11, it will still be a red district, just much less red.

Of interest to progressives is that in any likely acceptable scenario the city of Asheville will once again be wholly inside NC-11. The R+14 district currently is represented in part by Freedom Caucus chair and Donald Trump lackey, Mark Meadows. Rep. Heath Shuler, the last Democrat to represent NC-11, retired after Republicans in Raleigh redrew the district in 2011 to split Asheville/Buncombe County between NC-11 and NC-10 (Rep. Patrick McHenry). With Asheville back in his district, the shoe will be on the other foot and it will be aimed at Meadows' backside.

The stars could align once again as they did in 2006 when Shuler won that seat in an R+6 district in a blue moon election from 8-term Republican incumbent Charles Taylor. “Chainsaw” Charlie’s bank was into fraud, conspiracy, and shady Russian deals before that was presidential.

Taylor had worn out his welcome. Tied at the hip to Donald Trump, Meadows is in danger of the same. He will have to defend his seat in a less favorable district and in a presidential year with expected record turnout (but with photo IDs required for voting).

The problem facing late entries to the Democrats' congressional field here is the amount of money they'll need to raise to be competitive and the abbreviated time they will have to raise it. The average Democrats spent to flip a House seat in 2018 was $5.5 million, with about a third of 18 races I looked at clustered around $4.6-4.7 million. Shuler (with his NFL name recognition) flipped NC-11 in 2006 for $1.85 million and received 54% of vote. Charles Taylor outspent him by more than 2 to 1.

Rumor has it several prospective Democratic candidates with the profiles and fundraising chops to run competitive campaigns have been on the sidelines waiting for new district lines before challenging Mark Meadows. Their time may have come. Meadows' time may be running out.

HI THERE! We're coming, @RepMarkMeadows. And so, Dear Readers, stand by with your credit cards handy.