Chart via Axios.
Advanced Kavanaugh calculus
by Tom Sullivan
Chart via Axios.
The calculus behind bringing the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation to its denouement has become Hawking-level complex. Allegations of a sexual assault in high school and the prospect of testimony by Kavanaugh's accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, threaten to wrest confirmation from Senate Republicans' grasp.
Republicans are hell-bent to have this process over with before the mid-terms. Sen. Lindsay Graham gave away the game yesterday on Twitter:
Why the deadline? Graham doesn't explain. Greg Sargent does at Plum Line. Should the GOP lose the Senate in November, their position will be weakened and pushing through this nominee or any replacement nominee becomes that much tougher:It is imperative the Judiciary committee move forward on the Kavanaugh nomination and a committee vote be taken ASAP.
— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) September 19, 2018
The Wall Street Journal editorial board is helpfully explicit on the real calculus here as well, warning: “If Democrats take the Senate majority, they’ll then insist on no vote until the new Senate convenes in January.” Republicans would not listen to that, of course, but as this basically concedes, moving forward at that point would put them in a politically brutal position.Should a fuller accounting be inconclusive, Sargent argues, that could actually strengthen the case for Kavanaugh's confirmation. But time and news cycles are not on the GOP's side. The longer Dr. Ford's accusation remains in public view, the more damage Republicans incur even if they succeed in putting Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court.
By the way, Democrats may well partly want to delay this until after the midterms. But even if true, the fact that Republicans are citing this is still revealing. Republicans, after all, could support a fuller investigation into what happened while also getting in the vote before the elections — there is still time for both. The only thing that would delay this until after the elections is if Kavanaugh’s nomination became untenable due to that fuller investigation, forcing Trump to nominate a replacement. Thus, that is what they really want to avoid — a fuller accounting that could scuttle the nomination.
Already burdened by an unpopular president and an energized Democratic electorate, the male-dominated GOP is now facing a torrent of scrutiny about how it is handling Kavanaugh’s accuser and whether the party’s push to install him on the high court by next week could come at a steep political cost with women and the independent voters who are the keystone for congressional majorities.Whether or not Ford will appear on Monday before an adversarial GOP panel without additional FBI examination of her claims is in question. Iowa's Sen. Chuck Grassley, the chair of the Judiciary Committee, has set a Friday deadline for Ford to supply a full statement if she expects to appear on Monday. Sargent reminds readers Grassley originally wanted a private hearing out of public view. Under pressure for a public hearing, he's giving Ford the bum's rush.