Fool me twice? by @BloggersRUs

Fool me twice?

by Tom Sullivan

Image via Third Way

Third Way and I finally agree on something.

The center-left think tank has released a report examining 99 Democratic-held House districts where turnout there could determine the winner of the 2020 presidential contest. From moderate Ron Kind (Wis.) to first-term liberal Rashida Tlaib (Mich.), Democratic performance in these districts can make the difference in whether Donald Trump or the Democratic nominee wins the White House. Turnout in key districts could also be determinative in 2020 Senate races, the Washington Post's Paul Kane explains:

Kind, for example, sits in a district that flipped from supporting Barack Obama in 2012 to backing Donald Trump in 2016, a year in which Wisconsin narrowly sided with the GOP nominee. And poor turnout in Tlaib’s hometown helped Trump put Michigan in his win column.

Even as Kind, 56, and Tlaib, 43, presumably cruise to reelection next year, the margins they run up might prove decisive to their states’ critical total of 26 electoral votes. They have the potential to help boost, or deflate, the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, a sign of how Democrats need to push to get every vote possible next year.

Third Way ranked the congressional districts based on five factors: 2018 House Flip (43 seats), 2018 Close Call (win margin in single-digits - 40 seats), Trump District (with Democratic incumbent - 31 seats), 2020 Presidential Battlegrounds (70 seats), and 2020 Senate Battlegrounds (39 seats).

Kane continues:

Down in North Carolina, Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D) has easily won for 15 years, but the former chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus has a district that might be key to tipping the state’s 15 electoral votes to Democrats.

Perhaps more importantly, Butterfield could help the Democratic nominee for the Senate race against Sen. Thom Tillis (R), a contest that could serve as a tipping point for control of the Senate.

"The point of this analysis is not to say that only 99 Members or districts are important, concludes study author David de la Fuente. "But it does show that in the vast majority of Democratic-held House seats, one can turn a blue place bluer, but it wouldn’t accomplish much either there or statewide when it comes to helping Democrats gain power."

I might argue with the selection of ranking criteria, but we agree on the importance of district races. Congressional districts, however, are not the only ones that matter for Democrats gaining power. State-level power is also on the line in 2020 and for the next decade.

Too many voters view elections through the lens of statewide races – for president, for governor, for Senate. Those campaigns set the agenda and budgets for get out the vote efforts. Statewide candidates seek votes in bulk and concentrate their resources in places where they can easily find them: big, blue cities. That's where the national campaigns focus their efforts in battleground states.

But while running up the score in metro areas may help statewide candidates, it doesn’t win extra seats in state legislatures. Democrats don’t just need votes in bulk, they need them out where state House and Senate seats are drawn. Picking up seats outside Democrat-friendly population centers will determine control of 2021 redistricting in most states. Those of us who dream of ending gerrymanders that result in "Democrats winning more votes [and] Republicans holding more seats" are painfully aware of the damage the Republicans' 2010 Redistricting Majority Project (REDMAP) wrought across the country.

David Daley explained their 2010 strategy for micro-targeting state legislative districts:

The party would target control of state legislative chambers that either party held by five or fewer seats. They’d double down on states where the governor had veto power over the maps. And there would be plenty of money to fund key campaigns, upgrade technology, recruit and train candidates — and then to guarantee that every state legislature had a redistricting lawyer and litigator.

Republicans began fundraising for the effort in early 2008, documents reveal.

Even with REDMAP architect Thomas Hofeller, lately of North Carolina, gone to his reward, there will be a 2020 version of REDMAP in play. The unpopularity of the enfant terrible currently mismanaging the executive branch may dampen its impact some, but Democrats fixated on defeating Trump cannot afford to be blind-sided again. Should Trump look like a sinking ship next year, Republicans won't abandon him. They'll double down on holding onto power where they gained it in 2010 – in the states.